Tuley's Takes Today 10/11: Tuesday Best Bets, updated betting stats, Contest Corner

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 


Monday was a bit different than usual in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

After going non-stop every weekend with wall-to-wall football on Saturdays and Sundays, my Mondays are usually spent catching up on some sleep and doing some errands/chores around the house and getting a head-start on my big Wednesday column (which used to run in “Point Spread Weekly,” but this season has been incorporated in these daily columns), but this Monday I had to put my nose to the proverbial grindstone even more intense than usual as I’m taking some family time on Tuesday. I’m going to the airport early in the morning and flying to Orange County to meet my wife and son, Maddux, as we’re going to the “Oogie Boogie Bash – A Disney Halloween Party” at Disney California Adventure. This is a Tuley family tradition as my wife has taken the kids to this trick-or-treat/nighttime event the past dozen years. I’ve only gone a few times over the years since it’s during football season, but figured I better do it this year as Maddux, 13, isn’t getting any younger.

Anyway, back to Monday, the day led up to the Monday Night Football game, which was a thriller as I detailed in my “Monday night recap” on our VSiN.com website HERE.

As I wrote about in Monday’s version of this column, I had 2-team, 6-point teasers live from Sunday’s games with the Vikings -1 and Browns + 8 to the Chiefs -1 but unfortunately those end up being just a refund on the push in the Chiefs’ 30-29 victory. I also pushed on Chiefs -1/Over 46 and also teasers leading to Week 6 games on the Buccaneers -1.5 at the Steelers and Seahawks + 8.5 vs. the Cardinals.

The end result is we have a clean slate now heading into Week 6.

Let’s recap the MNF result and update our NFL betting stats through the first 5 weeks of the season, plus take a peek into Contest Corner to update Circa Survivor and highlight the leaders in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest before getting to our Best Bets for Tuesday and our early NFL Week 6 plays.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: Chiefs rallied to win 30-29 shootout vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football, but they did NOT cover as 7-point home favorites (game went Over betting total of 51.5 points). Faves went 10-5 SU with 1 PK (Titans-Commanders) in Week 5, but dogs led 10-5 ATS. Home teams went 8-7 SU with 1 neutral-site game (Giants-Packers in London), but road teams led 10-5 ATS. Unders led 9-7.

More NFL: Faves lead 46-31-1 SU with 2 pick-'ems (WAS-DET in Week 2, TEN-WAS  in Week 5), but dogs lead 45-30-3 ATS (60 percent). Home teams lead 41-36-1 SU with 2 neutral-site games (MIN-NO in Week 4, NYG-GB in Week 5), but road teams lead 40-35-3 ATS (53.3 percent). Unders lead 46-33-1 (58.2 percent), primetime Unders lead 11-5 (68.8 percent).

MLB (ICYMI): Underdogs finished 5-3 in the wild-card round with 1 pick-'em (Phillies-Cardinals Game 1). Road teams went 6-3 (as road teams won 3 of the 4 series). Unders went 5-4.

Contest Corner

CircaSurvivor has 718 live entries heading to #NFL Week 6 (after 1,222 were alive heading into Week 5) as 26 survived with the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. A lot of 504 were eliminated in Week 5, led by the No. 1 choice, Jaguars (449) on Sunday, followed by the Packers (48), Browns (1), Cardinals (1) and Rams (1), plus Broncos (4) last Thursday night.

Circa Sports Million has a three-way tie for 1st place after NFL Week 5 with GAMBLING RATS-1 (20-3-2), PEPPER PICKS-1 (21-4) and TAIL PARTY-2 (21-4) all having 21 contest points (1 point per win, 0.5 per push).

SuperContest leader is GAMBLING RATS at 21-3-1 through NFL Week 5 (yes, GAMBLING RATS is also co-leader in Circa Sports Million).

Tuesday’s Takes

Mariners 1st 5 + 0.5 + 105 at Astros: I already gave out the Mariners on my regular appearance on VSiN’s “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (and in the Monday version of this column) as I really like this Mariners teams and how it can win with the long ball or small ball and really think they can win this best-of-5. For Tuesday’s Best Bet purposes let’g go with our tried-and-true 1st 5 inning wager to shorten the game and count on Logan Gilbert to keep match Justin Verlander (note: taking the + 0.5, we win if the game is tied through 5 innings. In addition, we’re also taking + 190 for the full game. I’m not as high on the other underdogs in this round, so will pass on the other Game 1s.

NFL Week 6

Falcons + 6 vs. the 49ers (Falcons are much more competitive than we expected; a few books still at 6).

Jets + 7.5 at the Packers (same with Jets, though this is also a fade of the overrated Packers; I hope listeners/readers grabbed the 7.5 as most are gone).

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