Tuley's Takes Today 10/10: Monday Best Bets, plus Contest Corner, NFL Week 6

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Patrick_Mahomes

Sunday was another action-filled day in the Tuley’s Takes home office, especially as dogs kept barking  in the NFL.

Dogs went 8-5 ATS on Sunday with 1 pick-'em (9-5 ATS so far in Week 5, including the Colts’ upset of the Broncos on Thursday Night Football), and we went 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets that we listed in the Sunday version of this column with wins on the Giants + 8.5 vs. Packers, Texans + 7 at Jaguars, Falcons + 10 at Buccaneers, Cowboys + 5.5 at Rams and Bengals + 3.5 -120 at Ravens (and 6-2 ATS if including the Browns + 3 vs. the Chargers from earlier in the week). The losses were on the Steleers + 14 at Bills and Lions + 3.5 at Patriots.

It was also a fun day as I spent it at Circa’s Stadium Swim with my friend, Tony “DURBIFY” Gordon, the reigning Circa Sports Million champion, and Michael “MYCOOL” Sax, one of the Circa Survivor winners from last year.

The day ended with my regular 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT spot on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as I stayed around for the live broadcast in the VSiN Studio adjacent to the Circa sportsbook as we recapped Sunday’s betting action and looked ahead with picks on Monday Night Football and NFL Week 6.

So, let’s do that again here as we do daily in this space. And let’s also take a peek in Contest Corner at how the contestants are faring in this season’s big Vegas contests.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Ravens (3-point home favorites) beat Bengals 19-17 on Sunday Night Football, but did NOT cover. Faves went 9-4 SU on Sunday with 1 pick-’em (Titans-Commanders), but dogs led 8-5 ATS. Home teams went 7-6 SU with 1 neutral-site game (Giants-Packers in London), but road teams led 8-5 ATS. Unders led 8-6.

More NFL: Including the London game, faves went 6-3 SU in early games with TEN-WAS closing PK, but dogs led 5-4 ATS. The outright upsets were by the Giants (+ 8 vs. Packers), Texans (+ 7 at Jaguars) and Jets (+ 3 vs. MIA). The Bears (+ 8.5 at MIN) and Falcons (+ 10 at Buccaneers) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 6-3 SU, but road teams led 5-4 ATS. Over/Unders split 5-5.

Even more NFL: Faves went 2-1 SU in the afternoon games, but dogs led 2-1 ATS as the Cardinals (+ 5) covered in 20-17 loss vs. Eagles. The Cowboys (+ 5) upset the Rams 22-10 while the 49ers (-6) covered in 37-15 win at Panthers. Road teams a perfect 3-0 SU in the afternoon, but home teams led 2-1 ATS. Unders led 2-1.

MLB: Padres (+ 123 road underdogs) beat Mets 6-0 Sunday night to win their wild-card series 2-1 (game stayed Under betting total of 6.5 runs). Dogs finished ahead at 5-3 in the wild-card round with 1 pick-'em (Phillies-Cardinals Game 1). Road teams went 6-3 (as road teams won 3 of the 4 series). Unders went 5-4.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 718 live entries as 504 have been eliminated so far in NFL Week 5 on the Jaguars (449), Packers (48), Browns (1), Cardinals (1) and Rams (1) on Sunday, plus Broncos (4) on Thursday night. There are 692 that have already advanced onto Week 6, with 26 still needing the Chiefs to win on Monday night 

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-1-1 in NFL Week 5 (16-8-1, 66.7 percent, on the season) with wins on the Cowboys + 5 at the Rams, Titans -1.5 at the Commanders and Bengals + 3.5 at the Ravens. The only loss was on the No. 1 choice, the Buccaneers -8.5 in their 21-15 non-covering win vs. the Falcons. The push was on the Browns + 2 in their 30-28 loss vs the Chargers. 

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected went 2-3 in Week 5 (17-8, 68 percent, on the season) with wins on the Cowboys + 5.5 at the Rams and Browns + 2.5 vs. Chargers but losses on Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Falcons, plus Ravens -3 vs. Bengals and Seahawks + 5.5 at Saints 

Monday’s Takes

Chiefs -1/Buccaneers -1.5 (2-team, 6-point teaser): I gave this out with Peterson (and mentioned I also have live teasers to the Chiefs -1 from Vikings -1 and Browns + 8.5 on Sunday) as we can take the Chiefs down to close to pick-’em and also take the Bucs down from -7.5 at the Steelers next Sunday. In addition, I also said my preferred single-game teaser for MNF would be Chiefs -1/Over 46. Another potential teaser leg for next Sunday is Seahawks + 8.5 vs. the Cardinals.

NFL Week 6: I also have 2 sides I like for next Sunday with the Falcons + 6 vs. the 49ers (Falcons are much more competitive than we expected) and the Jets + 7.5 at the Packers (same with Jets, though this is also a fade of the overrated Packers).

Mariners + 200 series price vs. Astros): The League Division Series Game 1 lines weren’t out yet as of Sunday night, but I’m high on the Mariners’ chances to upset the Astros in the best-of-5 series. As I mentioned to Peterson, I’m a little concerned about having to face Houston’s Justin Verlander on Tuesday, but still making the series bet now in case the Mariners do steal Game 1, and will rebet at a better price if they lose.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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