LAS VEGAS – Hey, VSiN members and Point Spread Weekly subscribers: we hope you’re been the World Cup so far (whether you’re a soccer fan or just taking advantage of the great betting opportunities the sport offers).
We hope we helped last week in PSW as the Tuley’s Takes best bets went 3-1-1 with wins on Australia 0.5 EVEN vs. Denmark, a push on Costa Rica 2 vs. Brazil (a bad beat with Brazil scoring both goals in stoppage time), a win on Nigeria plus-190 vs. Iceland, a loss on Mexico-South Korea Under 2.5 (a really bad beat as Mexico scored its first goal in a 2-1 victory on an unfortunate hand ball/penalty kick in the first half and then it still didn’t go over until South Korea scored a “meaningless” goal in stoppage time) and an easy
win on England-Panama Over 2.5 as England romped 6-1.
As promised at the end of the piece, we’re making this pre-PSW post for Monday and Tuesday’s games. Lines are from the South Point as of late Sunday night.
Monday, June 26
Group A: 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: I’m passing on Russia-Uruguay and Egypt-Saudi Arabia as the former is between two teams that have already clinched berths in the knockout stage (and just playing for seeding) while the latter is between two eliminated teams (playing for pride). If forced to post leans, I’d go with Egypt -0.5 -120 and take a flier on Russia-Uruguay playing to a draw at around plus-190 to plus-200.
Monday, June 26
Group B: 2 p.m. ET/11 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: After Iran’s 1-0 win over Morocco in the group opener, I wrote that I wouldn’t like Morocco against either Portugal or Spain, so after it lost 1-0 to Portugal, I’m still passing on Morocco vs. Spain. As for Iran, I passed vs. Spain, but during the 1-0 loss, I saw a team that stepped up defensively and can contain Ronaldo and the Portugal offense. Iran isn’t an offensive machine, but it’s taking on a pretty weak defense that allowed 16 shots to Morocco and Iran should get enough scoring opportunities to make this a game. Best Bet: Iran plus-1 -155 in 2-way betting (some books offering plus-0.5 plus -140).
Tuesday, June 27
Group C: 10 a.m. ET/7 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: France is 2-0 and before the tournament I decided I wasn’t going to fade it in the group stage, so I’m not going to start now even with Denmark having more to play for. However, after Australia’s 2-1 loss to France in the opener, I wrote in PSW that “Australia has a shot vs. Denmark and especially Peru. Well, we took Australia 0.5 EVEN against Denmark and cashed with the 1-1 tie so now I feel pot-committed to take the Aussie against Peru. I was going to go with PK plus-115, but Australia needs to win outright to advance, so I’m going with the 3-way line of plus-200 as the draw doesn’t help the Socceroos. Besides, I still what I wrote last week in my pick on Nigeria plus-190 vs. Iceland: “When I’m right, I like to be rewarded.” Best Bet: Australia plus-200 in 3-way betting.
Tuesday, June 27
Group D: 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: I’m also passing on the early Tuesday games (unless I make a degenerate bet or two. I was thrilled to hit Nigeria’s upset of Iceland but totally didn’t see Croatia’s upset of Argentina. Maybe I’m still putting too much faith in Messi, but I still expect Argentina to win and advance though I’m not willing to bet on it. As for Croatia-Iceland, I think the chalk prevails there, too.