Tuley's Takes on Week 9 in NFL


Underdogs were the way to go again in NFL Week 8. They were 10-4 ATS with seven outright upsets, which is always good news here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We went a kind-of disappointing 5-3 with our best bets in “Point Spread Weekly,” including a loss on Over 49 in the Eagles-Panthers game, so a more respectable 5-2 with ATS picks. And we were 4-1 in Circa Sports Million and the SuperContest, with the Jets + 19.5/+ 20 being the one dog that came up short on more of our cards.

As a dog-or-pass bettor, I should be doing well when dogs are barking, and they are 65-49-2 ATS (57%) with three pick-’ems on the season. That’s reflected in my Tuley’s Takes best bets, which are 34-25 (57%), again including a handful of Over/Unders. So do I recommend betting every dog in the NFL? Absolutely not! In fact, when dogs are performing at such a high level, I actually think we have to be even more selective. These trends tend to even out over time, so a chalky correction is probably coming. The good news is that oddsmakers aren’t as inclined to drastically shade the odds like they did earlier this year, when Overs got off to a hot start, or when favorites go on a run. But I’m still passing in some cases this week because it seems like they’re setting the lines a little too short.

As always, we take each game on a case-by-case basis as we go through the weekly card. Lines are the consensus of Vegas books as of Tuesday afternoon. As regular readers know, if I don’t recommend an actual wager on a game, I’ll still give my pool play for those in contests where we have to make a pick on every game with my degree of confidence for both SU and ATS pools.

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