Tuley's Takes on Week 7 in NFL

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Sportsbooks reported that NFL Week 6 was their best result this season, and as contrarian dog-or-pass bettors who usually need the same sides as the books, it was also a great weekend for us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 6 and are now 47-40-2 ATS on the season, with two games closing pick-’em. We know there are some other ATS results out there, but longtime followers know we base our betting stats on my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I get from the closing lines (note: Cardinals closed as one-point underdogs on “MNF”) of the 10 Vegas books on the Don Best odds screen. I know many people get different lines on games, so the numbers don’t always match, but I believe it’s the fairest way to grade results after input from everyone — oddsmakers, bookmakers, wise guys, the public and sharp late action. Most discrepancies in records will come from games I graded closing as pick-’em or when favorites have changed.

For the record, I have road teams at 50-39-2 ATS, so home field is still not all it’s cracked up to be compared with when we had full stadiums.

After scoring was at an all-time high and Overs were the way to go early in the season, we saw oddsmakers adjust with higher totals. Week 6 brought the reversal, with Unders going 10-4, though Overs still lead 47-42-2.

For our individual plays, our picks here last week went 5-2 with wins on the Falcons (and the Over), Eagles, 49ers and Broncos but losses on the Jaguars and Browns to improve to 25-20. This doesn’t include our continuing success with recommendations for adding a teaser portfolio each week. Our Sunday plays went 4-1 last week with the Patriots -2.5 the only losers — and we weren’t too upset with that, as we were all over the Broncos at + 8.5 and rebet them when the line went to + 10 later in the week and used in all our contests.

Last week also worked out well in the MLB playoffs. I hope readers were with us in taking the Dodgers around + 195 after they fell behind 2-0 to the Braves in the NLCS. You also could have gotten around + 350 (odds of 7-2) if you had parlayed the Dodgers’ moneylines game to game when they trailed 3-1.

I didn’t do a separate World Series betting preview, as I’m still not fading the Dodgers after much success going against them in previous postseasons. I certainly respect the Rays and wouldn’t be surprised if they win a game or two at decent odds, but I’m not confident they can do it enough to turn a profit.

OK, let’s get to this week’s card, with lines being the consensus of Vegas books as of Tuesday afternoon. As regular readers know, if I don’t recommend an actual wager, I’ll still give my pool play for those of us in contests in which we have to make a pick on every game with my degree of confidence for both SU and ATS pools.

 

Giants at Eagles (-3.5)

Joke all you want about the NFC Least, but the Eagles are just a half-game behind the Cowboys and the Giants are just one game out. The Giants are tempting at + 3.5 with the hook, as they’ve been more competitive than expected in their losses to the Bears, Rams and Cowboys. But I still think the Eagles are the right side and picked them on the VSiN NFL Consensus page. However, I’m not laying the points with actual cash. The better bet is probably the Under. Hopefully everyone grabbed Under 44, as that was the play and it looks like it’s understandably being bet down. Best Bet: Under 43.5 (pool play: Eagles on all my rare contests that use “TNF”).

 

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