Tuley's Takes on Week 15

December 14, 2021 07:17 PM
tuley

NFL Week 14 was a roller-coaster here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

As a dog-or-pass bettor, it was not fun watching favorites go 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on Sunday and 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS overall. We went 1-4 ATS with our best bets and lucked out with that one win as we needed the Ravens to rally from a 24-3 deficit, with Tyler Huntley replacing an injured Lamar Jackson, to cover as 2.5- to 3-point underdog in a 24-22 loss at the Browns.

We hope readers have been following our two-team, 6-point teaser recommendations as they’ve boosted our profits in winning weeks and helped salvage our losing weeks. Our biggest bet was on the Ravens + 8.5/Bengals + 7.5 (flipped in our “Tuley’s Takes Today” version of this column at VSiN.com). We also recommended using the Seahawks -1.5 vs. the Texans and the Rams + 8.5 at the Cardinals, and we added Rams + 8.5/Over 45 in Monday’s “Tuley’s Takes Today,” so we swept our teaser bets and actually ended up making a profit on the week.

We’re done with bye weeks, so let’s get to the full 16-game card for NFL Week 15 as I’ll give my take on each game from my dog-or-pass point of view. With favorites dominating so much last week, I think chalk bettors will be eager to put that money back in action, so we should get a lot of value with dogs this week. Per usual, even if I don’t have a strong opinion on a game, I’ll give my pool play strategy for contests which require picking every game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers

This is a great Thursday nighter to kick off Week 15 with the AFC West lead on the line. The Chiefs have won six straight and the bandwagon is filling up, but I’m willing to fade them with the Chargers, who have also looked great in consecutive wins over the Bengals and Giants. Let’s not forget that the Chargers beat the Chiefs 30-24 in their first meeting (granted, the Chiefs were in disarray at the time). The KC bandwagon is filling up, as the Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites and it was up to 4 as of this writing on Tuesday. We’re seeing some buyback at Chargers + 4 as the line has dipped to 3.5 at some books.

Best Bet: Chargers + 4 (pool play: Chargers in contests that use Thursday night games).

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3)

This is the first of two Saturday games this week. When I was first writing up this game on Tuesday morning, I couldn’t decide if I could trust the reeling Raiders at + 6. Then it was announced that the Browns were entering the NFL’s enhanced COVID-19 protocols as eight players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including WR Jarvis Landry and TE Austin Hooper. The line dropped to 3, and I certainly don’t want the Raiders at that price.

Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

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