We’re still feeling high from the Buccaneers’ upset of the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, but here at the Tuley’s Takes home office, we’re also starting to go though some withdrawal with no pro football until August. Heck, we don’t even have the AAF or the XFL this year.
We sincerely hope our readers were with us on our published picks on the underdog Buccaneers and the Under. We also hit a Bucs/Under teaser but wish we hadn’t chickened out and just parlayed them! But hopefully you fared better with your proposition wagers, as we were counting on a more competitive game. We lost “Game Tied After 0-0” and “Largest Lead Under 14.5,” among others, but at least cut our prop losses with “Neither Team To Have Three Unanswered Scores,” “Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards” and Tom Brady winning the MVP at 2-1.
Tuley’s Takes on Super Bowl LVI
With the 2020-21 season behind us, it’s never too early to look ahead to the next season. Pro football is a year-round betting sport. Super Bowl futures have already been posted for a month while books are posting season win totals, division odds and all kinds of other NFL props earlier and earlier each year.
We’ve had success with our NFL futures book recommendations the last decade, highlighted by having the Seahawks at 12-1 for Super Bowl XLVIII and the Falcons at 100-1 for Super Bowl LI. Of course, the Falcons lost to the Patriots 34-28 in OT after famously leading 28-3, but I mention it as we were able to hedge out for a couple grand despite the loss, which is another way of making money with early futures.
Despite their loss Sunday, the Chiefs are 5-1 favorites to win Super Bowl LVI on Feb. 6, 2022, at SoFi Stadium on the former site of Hollywood Park in Inglewood, Calif. The Buccaneers are 8-1 to repeat after opening 12-1 at the Westgate SuperBook on Jan. 18, followed by the Packers and Bills at 10-1, the Ravens at 12-1 and the Saints at 14-1. The Rams and Chargers, who will both be hoping to become the second straight team to host and win a Super Bowl, are 16-1 and 30-1, respectively.
This year a lot of people are talking about the quarterback carousel, and that will impact how we’ll approach the odds for the upcoming season, just like those who made the right call when Brady joined the Buccaneers last March.
The Rams were lowered from 20-1 after news broke that they were acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Lions, so that has already been factored into their current price of 16-1. We’re also waiting to hear whether Drew Brees retires, but it’s assumed the 14-1 odds are with him gone and replaced by Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston or a combination thereof.
But many more unanswered QB scenarios exist. We are waiting to see to which team the Eagles trade Carson Wentz (the Bears and Colts are the loudest rumors), whom the Colts will get to replace Philip Rivers, if and where Deshaun Watson will be traded, whether Dak Prescott will be able to play for the Cowboys in 2021, and whether the Jaguars will draft Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 or if they trade the pick.
I usually zero in on one team or a team from each conference, but this year I might take more of a scattershot approach as I’m liking the prospects of several teams.
I’m still high on the Titans and Cardinals for the same reasons I liked them last year, when I made them my early picks. Both came up short but certainly showed enough promise to make them playable at 40-1 and 30-1, respectively.
The Colts are 30-1, so if you think they’ll get Wentz — or if you think there’s something to the rumor about Andrew Luck coming out of retirement — the time to buy is now. They already have a great offensive line and running game to go with a talented receiving corps and a top defense.
In the same price range, the Steelers and Browns are 30-1, should contend again in the AFC North and certainly offer better value than the Ravens at 10-1. And the Cowboys have to be seen as appealing at that price if Prescott returns to 100%.
Among the higher-priced teams, the Panthers might be worth a flyer at 50-1, and I can’t help but be tempted by the Falcons at 60-1. The Falcons are available at 70-1 at Circa Sports here in Vegas, so this is a good spot to say that no matter where you are, shop around for the best price.
For our purposes, I’ll settle on the Colts (30-1 to win the Super Bowl, 15-1 to win the AFC) and the Cardinals (also 30-1 to win the Super Bowl, 15-1 to win the NFC) as my top value plays in each conference. Check back in April when the schedules come out and we should be able to look for the best values in divisional futures and Over/Under season win totals.