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Tuley's Takes on NHL & NBA playoffs (second round): take 2

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

April 27, 2019 10:14 PM

As promised in this week’s issue of Point Spread Weekly, this is my Tuley’s Takes update with our betting strategy for the second round of the NHL & NBA playoffs.

We combined both in this same file, starting with the NHL (with its second-round schedule already in place on Thursday) and then adding plays in the NBA as the second-round matchups took place.

 

Tuley’s Take on NHL second round

 

Let’s start with the NHL as the first round wrapped up Wednesday night with the Hurricanes beating the defending champion Capitals 4-3 in double overtime to win their series 4-3. The Hurricanes were the sixth series underdog to prevail in the first-round series.

I wish I had been betting more dogs on a nightly basis as they went an incredible 26-17 SU (60.5 percent) in the first round with three games closing pick ‘em. But I can’t complain as we won our only two series bets on the Stars plus-160 vs. the Predators (given out in PSW) and the Islanders 135 vs. the Penguins (given out on “Follow the Money” on Wednesday morning April 10).

And of course there were the 1st Period Over/Unders, which continued to produce profits for us. Games involving the FollowtheMoney6 Over teams in the first round (Blue Jackets vs. Lightning as two FTM6 teams faced each other, Penguins and Sharks) went 10-5 with the Over while the Stars, the top 1P Under team, went 4-2 with the Under. We were up 8.5 units through the first week of the playoffs thanks to all of the above being in action and plenty of parlay opportunities, but with the Blue Jackets sweeping the Lightning and the Penguins getting swept by the Islanders, the second week saw us give some back as we ended the round at plus-4.75 units. Results may vary depending on if followers were able to parlay as well as what prices they were able to get on each play, but I trust anyone playing these so far in the playoffs has shown a tidy profit.

I already posted in this week’s PSW that I’m on the Stars plus-135 in their series against the Blues. In the other series, I either like the favorite or the price is too short to take on the underdog, so I’ll mostly be playing individual games, especially the 1st Periods.

We lost the Lightning and Penguins, but we still have the Blues Jackets and Sharks as 1P Over plays as well as the Stars 1P Under. The playoffs start Thursday with the Blue Jackets and Stars in action, and again on Saturday, so we’ll be parlaying those. With some books posting advance games, we’ll look to see if we’re able to parlay games played on different days. Otherwise, here’s the schedule leading up to next weeks’ PSW:

Thursday, April 25

Parlay Blue Jackets 1P Over 1.5 to Stars 1P Under 1.5; with Blue Jackets-Bruins 1P only -115 and the Stars 1P only -160 (looks like a bargain to me as I was afraid it might be -200 with the Stars playing the Blues and the game total set low at 5)

Friday, April 26

Sharks are only FTM6 team in action with the 1P Over priced around -160; I’ll probably parlay the Stars 1P Under from Thursday to the Sharks 1P Over on Friday and if the Stars’ 1P Under for Saturday’s game is available on Friday, I’ll probably parlay this game to that one.

Saturday, April 27

We have another natural parlay set up with Stars 1P Under to the Blue Jackets 1P Over.

Sunday, April 28

Sharks again the only FTM6 team in action but again look if parlayable with games the day before or after.

Monday, April 29

The Stars 1P Under is the standalone game on this night.

Tuesday, April 30

We get a new parlay pair on this day with the Blue Jackets 1P Over to the Sharks 1P Over.

 

Tuley’s Takes on NBA second round

 

The Eastern Conference matchups are set with the Bucks (-300 series price) taking on the Celtics (plus-250) and the Raptors (-240) vs. the 76ers (plus-200). I’m not sure the Celtics can take the best-of-seven series from the Raptors, but I do think they’ll finish with a winning ATS record in the series.

Thursday, April 25

As I wrote in PSW, I’ll take the Spurs at home, even as short faves. I’m even more encouraged as there are some Spurs -2.5s available offshore.

Friday, April 26

Clippers as double-digit underdogs vs. the Warriors like we cashed in Game 4 on Sunday when they closed plus-10 against the Warriors (and plus-15 in Game 5 on Wednesday).

Saturday, April 27

Passing on Game 1 of Raptors-76ers series; would take Spurs plus the points if there’s a Game 7 at Denver.

Sunday, April 28

Jumping in right away with Celtics plus-8 against Bucks (note: I hope readers grabbed the plus-8 that was widely available Thursday when this article was first posted; I still think plus-7.5 is playable, but if you grabbed plus-8 when the market was moving, you wouldn't have to worry about that decision now!). I'm also taking the Rockets plus-5.5 in Game 1 against the Warriors. Just like I said with the Celtics, I'm not sure if the Rockets can win 4-of-7, but I feel very good about them having a winning ATS record in the series.

Monday, April 19

I'm glad I passed on the 76ers in Game 1 against the Raptors on Saturday, but I'm going to back them in Game 2 at plus-6.5. Call it a zig-zag play if you want (though the zig-zag -- aka "loser of the last" -- isn't as strong as it used to be and is a mediocre 16-16-1 ATS heading into Sunday) as that's part of the reason I'm expecting the 76ers to keep it closer than they did in Game 1).

As for the Nuggets-Trail Blazers series starting on Monday night, I'm going to take the same tact as in the 76ers-Raptors series. Like the Raptors, I think the Nuggets will prevail in their series and I'm not taking the underdog Blazers in Game 1. If the Nuggets indeed win Game 1 (like the Raptors did), then I'll be more likely to jump in on the Blazers plus the points in Game 2 like I did with the 76ers. However, that decision might come down to how the Blazers look in Game 1, so I'll reserve my official play for Point Spread Weekly on Wednesday.

Tuesday, April 30

After cashing with the Celtics and Rockets in their Game 1s against the Bucks and Warriors, respectively, I'll back them in their Game 2s here. As I wrote before, I expect both to end up with winning records ATS in their series.

Good luck, everyone, and see you next in PSW on Wednesday.

 

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