Tuley's Takes on NFL Week 14

December 7, 2021 08:52 PM
tuley

NFL Week 13 was another roller-coaster ride here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but as has happened many weekends this season, teasers saved the day (or week!).

We went 2-3 ATS with our best bets posted in Point Spread Weekly as we won with the Lions + 7 and the Steelers + 4 (both pulled outright upsets) but lost with the Falcons, Giants and Broncos.

One of the big betting stories of Week 13 was that the five biggest favorites won and covered: the Buccaneers -11 over the Falcons, the Cardinals -8 over the Bears, the Colts -10.5 over the Texans, the Rams -14 over the Jaguars and the Chiefs -8.5 over the Broncos. There was a time when I probably would have bet on all five, but I felt pretty good that I was selective and bet only on the Falcons and Broncos from that group, so we saved some money. And the Falcons should have covered. If the Bucs had gotten one more first down on their last drive, they would have gone into victory formation, and then the Falcons still had a chance to get in the back door but failed on two final plays from the Bucs’ 7-yard line. Meanwhile, the Broncos had their chances before a muffed punt return and a pick-six spoiled that cover.

Anyway, that shows how close we were to a huge day as we swept our teaser plays. Many sportsbooks were bailed out on a lot of their teaser liability Sunday as a ton of bettors used the Vikings teased down to -1 vs. the Lions, but fortunately I saw the Vikings as vulnerable and passed on teasing them. In PSW, my top two-team, 6-point teaser was the Cardinals -2/Colts -2.5 (both won). After the Colts’ line moved out of teaser territory, I changed my preferred play in my daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” column and the best bets story on VSiN.com to Washington + 7.5 and the Patriots at + 8.5 or + 9. And for those following the daily version of this column, we also added the Patriots Under teaser Monday to really end the weekend on a winning note.

So let’s turn our attention to Week 14. I’ll give my take on each game from my dog-or-pass point of view. Per usual, even if I don’t have a strong opinion on a game, I’ll give my pool-play strategy for those in contests in which they have to pick every game.

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