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Tuley's Takes on NFL Week 10

November 9, 2021 08:18 PM
tuley

With apologies to Mars Blackmon, it’s gotta be the McRibs!

We went 4-1 ATS on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in last week’s Point Spread Weekly and 3-0 ATS with our top plays (Broncos, Vikings and Titans) posted here and in the “Tuley’s Takes Today” daily columns at VSiN.com. The loss was Thursday night on the Jets, so we swept Sunday’s plays as well as winning with every teaser combination we listed — the Chiefs (teasing down to -1.5 after the line went to -7.5), Browns, Giants, Eagles and Cardinals. Disclaimer: The fourth “win” on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page and in the regular Tuley’s Takes column in PSW was on the Chiefs at pick-’em. That was the line when we published last week right before it was announced that Aaron Rodgers had tested positive for COVID-19. Fortunately, I subbed in the Falcons for the Chiefs in my Vegas contests at Circa and Westgate to go 4-1 in those as well.

As I tried to explain last week, it’s just coincidental that I usually have a lot of success around the time of year the McRib returns at McDonald’s (just like Michael Jordan’s skills weren’t really because he wore Nikes). I believe the true reason is this just happens to be the time of the football season when the betting public mistakenly believes it knows more than it does and overbets certain teams, giving us a lot of line value.

We’ve crushed it the last two weeks, and the scary thing is it could have been even better. I teased the Cardinals but should have bet them ATS and on the moneyline against the 49ers when the whole world jumped on the 49ers, betting them to favoritism and making them the No. 1 play in the Circa Sports Million, the SuperContest and SuperContest Gold. And even though I also won with teasers using the Chiefs, in retrospect, I really should have also bet the Packers + 7.5 as that line was also overinflated.

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