Texas Tech and Virginia stamped their tickets to the Final Four on Saturday and now we head to the last two regional finals on Sunday.
I’m personally trying to move on from Virginia 80-75 victory over Purdue as we (and I’m assuming many of you reading this) had Purdue plus-4.5 as the best bet of the day. We certainly deserved a better fate after being the “right side” the vast majority of the game including playing to a 70-70 tie at the end of regulation and only failing to cover on two late free throws, but Bad Beats happen and our best-bet record dips to 9-5 ATS (64.3%). I don’t include this in my posted record, but I hope most of my followers took my advice at the end of my write-up and took Purdue plus-2 in the first half as the Boilermakers led 30-29 at halftime.
I’m focusing on just one best bet again for Sunday. Lines are from the South Point as of late Saturday night (though they’re both pretty solid lines across Las Vegas and offshore).
SUNDAY, MARCH 31
(691) Michigan State plus-2 vs. Duke
5:05 p.m. ET/2:05 p.m. PT
Tuley’s Take: As I’ve mentioned in these write-ups several times the past two weeks, I first handicapped this potential matchup when filling out my brackets and felt this was where Duke’s run would end. I already knew Duke had a tendency to let lesser teams stick around, and now we have a team arguably it’s equal (Cassius Winston runs the show in the backcourt, plus the Spartans have the bigs to take on the challenge of Zion Williamson and the rest of the Blue Devils frontline). I haven’t seen anything during the tournament to change my mind as Duke has escaped twice against Central Florida and Virginia Tech while Michigan State has been much more dominant in its victories (except for the first half vs. Bradley, but still nothing compared to how Duke has looked ordinary at times). Duke certainly has the horses to run away with this; however, I believe it’s more likely for Michigan State to win in a rout. If it happens, remember you read it here first! Best Bet: Michigan State plus-2.
Tuley’s Other Elite 8 Lean
(694) Kentucky -4.5 vs. Auburn (Auburn came through for us big-time with the upset of North Carolina, but lost Chuma Okeke to a left knee injury; I’m not sure I would have taken the Tigers against UK if Okeke hadn’t been injured as Kentucky swept the season series, especially as this line would have been even shorter, but definitely passing with him out)