It took a while – including two pretty entertaining Game 7’s on Sunday – but the NBA’s version of the Final Four is finally set. This is my Tuley’s Takes update from last week’s Point Spread Weekly as we set the table before this week’s issue (and I’ll also give my thoughts on the NHL conference finals).
Series: Blazers (plus 380) vs. Warriors (-475)
Game 1 (Tuesday): Warriors -8, O/U 218.5
Tuley’s Take: I’m sitting at 19-16-1 ATS in the playoffs. I trust everyone saw my play on the Warriors Friday night in the VSiN daily newsletter after the line was overadjusted following Kevin Durant’s injury in the prior game. I still can’t believe the Rockets went off as 7.5-point home favorites in that game. But now we move on to this intriguing series and I’m back to fading the Warriors. These teams split the regular-season series 2-2 but all the games took place before Jusuf Nurkic was hurt for the Blazers and of course before Durant’s injury. I’m not sure the Blazers can win 4-of-7, so I’m passing on the series price, but on a game-to-game basis, this is going to come down to which team is hitting more of its 3-pointers and I feel with the points that the Blazers will have a better ATS record in the series (like I said with the Rockets vs. the Warriors last round and they were 4-1 ATS before I flipped to the Warriors). So, I’ll start with the Blazers plus the points in both games in Oakland and expect to take them as short home underdogs when the series moves to Portland.
Series: Raptors (plus 250) vs. Bucks (-300)
Game 1 (Wednesday): Bucks -6.5, O/U 218
Tuley’s Take: This is another intriguing series, but I’m actually less confident in the underdog Raptors to win this series or cover a majority of games. Most of my doubts come from the fact the Bucks went to Toronto and swept those two meetings on the road; so even though the price is shorter, I like the Bucks’ chances better to advance to the NBA Finals. So, I’m taking the Raptors as road dogs in Games 1 and 2, but I’ll flip to the Bucks if they’re road dogs in Games 3 and/or 4 in Toronto.
Tuley’s Take on NHL conference finals
I haven’t posted any NHL plays the past week because I finally backed on our 1st Period Over/Under plays, plus I was pretty sure the favored Boston Bruins would be too much. I kinda liked the St. Louis Blues as short series underdogs vs. the San Jose Sharks but didn’t feel the price was high enough to make it worthwhile; however, with the Blues down 1-0 heading into Monday’s Game 2, I’m taking the 2-1 odds on the Blues to win the series. We’ll re-assess where we are on Wednesday in PSW.
One last betting note: the 1st Period Over has hit in the first three games this round. I think I’m also going to make a small play on the Blues-Sharks 1P Over 1.5 as it’s pick ‘em (and the Sharks were one of the #FollowtheMoney6 Over teams during the regular season and might be worth one more try). Again, let’s see what happens Monday night and take this up again in PSW.