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Tuley's Takes on MLB futures, Final Four


We posted our 2021 MLB betting preview in Point Spread Weekly four weeks ago but wanted to update it with the season starting this week. We haven’t changed our minds much here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, especially since we don’t put much stock in spring training games, but we also know a lot of readers aren’t looking to start betting until the season is actually here.

Similar to other sports, it’s been an interesting offseason coming off a condensed 2020 regular season. A lot of player movement has happened, and we’re supposed to go back to a 162-game schedule and with a so-called deadened ball.

This leads to my first bit of gambling advice. A lot of people are saying to bet Unders early in the season, but if I see oddsmakers shading the totals low, I’m going to jump on the Overs. Why? Count me as skeptical that MLB will actually do anything to limit scoring. That’s just not something any league does, so I’m not buying it. I don’t think anyone knows how this will affect scoring, Over/Unders or anything.

Before we get to my team predictions, I want to discuss two topics.

For those in Las Vegas on Wednesday: After canceling its Baseball Season Wins Challenge last year, the Westgate SuperBook is resuming it this year. But if you haven’t entered already, the deadline is 10 p.m. PT Wednesday, and only in person at the Westgate. Entries are $200 with a maximum of three per person, and you pick against the locked-in Over/Under season win total for all 30 MLB teams, with the tiebreaker being to predict the total wins by the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Another important rule is that individual teams must play 155 games for action. That leads me to Topic No. 2.

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