Tuley's Takes on MLB divisions, over/unders


In last week’s Point Spread Weekly, I was remiss in failing to mention that I was going to wait until this week to give my takes on the upcoming MLB season. I went through the other major sports but wanted a little more space to go through my baseball preview.

Similar to the other sports, baseball has had an interesting offseason coming off a condensed 2020 regular season. In fact, it still amazes us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office that the NFL has been the only sport to conduct its regular season unscathed, though we guess we shouldn’t be too surprised with just 16 regular-season games per team. Baseball has had a lot of player movement, and we’re supposed to go back to a 162-game schedule — with a deadened ball.

This leads me to my first bit of gambling advice. A lot of people are saying to bet Unders early in the season, but if I see oddsmakers shading the totals low, I’m going to jump all over the Overs. For starters, count me as skeptical that MLB will actually do anything to limit scoring. That’s just not something any sports league does, so I’m not buying it. Besides, even if the ball is deadened, I can’t help but think back to when I was playing a lot of softball in the Chicago area in 1989. I was in a 16-inch league (no gloves), a couple of regular 12-inch leagues (with gloves) and even a 14-inch “mushball” coed league. That ball was meant so men and women could play barehanded without breaking their fingers. The ball was noticeably softer on the outside and its flight was certainly restricted, especially when compared with a regular 12-inch softball. But if you hit that thing on the screws, it would go just as far. With the way today’s players swing for the fences, I doubt we’re going to see a drop in scoring, so consider joining me on the Overs right off the bat before the oddsmakers and the rest of the betting public react. And if we’re wrong, we’ll know after the first few days and can adjust.

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