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Tuley's Takes on AAF Week 8

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 29, 2019 10:49 AM

Rumors are swirling about the Alliance of American Football being ready to fold. That would be a shame as we’ve hit our best bet the last six weeks for all-access subscribers here at VSiN.com and five weeks in the NY Post (oh, and a shame for all the players, coaches and other jobs created by the league, too). But Week 8 lines are up in the New Jersey and Las Vegas books for Saturday and Sunday’s scheduled games, so they’re worth a look even if it’s for the last time.

The AAF continues to be a balanced betting market with favorites/underdogs at 14-14 ATS through seven weeks of the originally planned 10-week regular season (after faves started 4-0 ATS in Week 1). Home/roads teams were 2-2 ATS in Week 7 but we continue to see home-field advantage not meaning too much as road teams lead 15-13 ATS, especially if you consider home teams also started 4-0 ATS in Week 1 yet road teams are 15-9 ATS since then. Unders lead 15-12-1, but also remember that Unders went 3-1 in each of the first four weeks to stand at 12-4, so Overs are 8-3-1 the last three weeks after going 2-1-1 in Week 7.

OK, here’s the Week 8 card with consensus lines as of Friday morning.

SATURDAY

Orlando (-10.5) at Memphis (o/u 42)

Tuley’s Take: Memphis beat Birmingham 31-25 (OT) in Johnny Manziel’s debut, but it was Brandon Silvers that led the fourth-quarter comeback from an 11-point deficit. However, the Express played its most inspired game of the season. Orlando only beat Memphis 21-17 in Week 3 when we had the Express as 15-point underdogs; in fact, no double-digit fave has covered in the AAF. Still, Steve Spurrier’s Orlando team is obviously superior and might want to go out in style if the league is folding, so I’m only going to make a small wager on Memphis. Best Bet: Pass (lean to Memphis plus-10.5).

San Diego (o/u 40.5) at Salt Lake (-3)

Tuley’s Take: San Diego outlasted Salt Lake 27-25 three weeks on a game-ending field goal in what was perhaps the best game of this season. These teams were pretty even then and I think it’s a complete toss-up again. Best Bet: Pass (lean to Over 40.5 as another shootout is possible and the total is low).

SUNDAY

Atlanta (o/u 38) at Birmingham (-6)

Tuley’s Take: I called Birmingham a fraud when it was 3-0 and feel vindicated as the Iron have gone 1-3 since. I would love to fade it one last time, but I don’t trust 2-5 Atlanta (which lost 28-12 at home to Birmingham in Week 3) enough and we’re not getting enough points. Best Bet: Pass.

Arizona (o/u 43.5) at San Antonio (-1.5)

Tuley’s Take: Last week, we won our best bet by fading the San Antonio Commanders (who we had backed the three prior weeks) and cashed with the Salt Lake Stallions 5.5 in a 19-15 loss. This weekend’s best bet finds us going against San Antonio again with the recently scorching-hot Arizona Hotshots.

These teams met three weeks ago when San Antonio (who we had 2.5) won 29-25 at Arizona. However, as much as we enjoyed the relatively easy win, we acknowledge that the Commanders benefited from an early pick six as they built a 26-0 halftime team before the Hotshots stormed back and nearly won the game. Since halftime of that game, Arizona has arguably been playing the best of any AAF team (outscoring the top three AAF teams by a combined 79-35) as they beat previously undefeated Orlando 22-17 in Week 6 and then routed San Diego 32-15 last week in what was a de facto playoff game for the wild-card spot in the Western Division (if the playoffs were to take place). Best Bet: Arizona plus-1.5.

 

 

 

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