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Tuley's Takes on AAF Week 7

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 23, 2019 03:40 AM

LAS VEGAS – I know everyone is fully engrossed in the NCAA Tournament (and hopefully your brackets haven’t been busted) with the second round of action this weekend, but we can’t ignore the other sports going, especially the Alliance of American Football as we’re riding a four-week winning streak with our best bets.

I’ve actually ridden the San Antonio Commanders each of the last three weeks, but I’ll leave a little suspense until you get to the writeups on the Week 7 card below.

I just want to remind everyone that underdogs have been barking a lot lately (which is always good for yours truly) as they went 3-1 ATS in Week 6 and faves/dogs are now tied 12-12 ATS. You might remember that faves went 4-0 ATS way back in Week 1, so dogs are actually 12-8 ATS (60% since then). Home-field advantage has taken even more of a reversal as home teams (all favored) were also 4-0 ATS in Week 1, but after road teams went 3-1 ATS in Week 6, visitors now lead 13-11 ATS overall. Over/Unders split 2-2 in Week 6 with Unders still leading 14-10 overall.

OK, here’s the Week 7 card with consensus lines as of late Friday night.

SATURDAY

Orlando (-8.5) at Atlanta (o/u 42)

Tuley’s Take: OK, I know Atlanta is playing much better than it did in a 40-6 Week 1 loss to Orlando, but I’m not willing to take the Legends against the Apollos here, especially when I made the line Orlando -12. I don’t see Atlanta closing the gap that much. Besides, the Apollos are coming off their first loss of the season and I’m sure that coach Steve Spurrier had the attention of his team in practice this week. Best Bet: Pass.

Salt Lake (o/u 40.5) at San Antonio (-5.5)

Tuley’s Take (also appeared in Saturday’s New York Post): Last week in my Alliance of American Football best bet, I wrote that it’s important not to have “favorite teams” in sports betting because it can cloud our objectivity – and then I went ahead with the San Antonio Commanders for the third straight week and they routed the Atlanta Legends 37-6. Well, this week is when we really put that axiom to the test as I’m now fading the Commanders. The Salt Lake Stallions are visiting San Antonio as a 5.5-point underdog and I have this line closer to a field goal.

The Stallions aren’t as bad as their 2-4 record. They beat the Memphis Express 22-9 last week to get that second victory but had San Diego beat the prior week before losing 27-25 on a last-second field goal. Two weeks ago, they lost 20-11 to the Orlando Apollos, the AAF’s best team and which beat San Antonio by 8 earlier this year. They also lost 12-9 to Birmingham, so the Stallions are really a few plays away from having the same record as San Antonio. Best Bet: Salt Lake 5.5.

SUNDAY

San Diego (o/u 40) at Arizona (-3.5)

Tuley’s Take: This is a key game as both teams are tied for second place in the AAF’s Western Division and the winner will have a leg up on a playoff spot (though they’ll have a rematch in San Diego in Week 10). I’m tempted to take San Diego plus the 3.5 since these teams are pretty evenly matched; however, I believe the better play is on the Over. As we’ve discussed the past few weeks, we’re seeing the offenses starting to get good enough to take advantage of this league’s offensive-friendly rules and that’s especially true of Arizona, which after falling way behind San Antonio in Week 5, rallied to nearly win that game and then following it up with a 22-17 win over Orlando, the AAF’s best team. Besides, I’ve been watching this San Diego team closely and its secondary is really bad and that should help lead this to a shootout. Best Bet: Over 40.

Birmingham (-3) at Memphis (o/u 36.5)

Tuley’s Take: I called Birmingham’s 3-0 start a fraud and it lost two straight before beating San Diego in a 32-29 shootout last week. I would love to get back to fading the Iron, but this is not the spot. Memphis is the AAF’s worst team and is starting someone named Brandon Silvers at QB as Johnny Manziel may or may not play. Birmingham won the first meeting 26-0 in Week 1 and I don’t see any reason not to expect a similar result. I lean to the Under, but oddsmakers set this as the lowest total of Week 7. Best Bet: Pass.

 

 

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