LAS VEGAS – We hit the halfway point of the Alliance of American Football’s 10-week season last week and we’ve seen the betting results evening out.
For one thing, home teams went 4-0 ATS in Week, we’re back to exactly .500 in the home/road trend at 10-10 ATS. Favorites also started 4-0 ATS that first week but now lead just 11-9 ATS overall (so faves are just 7-9 ATS since then). But the biggest adjustment came last week with the totals.
I tried to warn everyone the last two weeks that a reversal was probably coming. Unders were 12-4 after going 3-1 in each of the first four weeks, but Overs swept the Week 5 card at 4-0 (darn, wish I had parlayed those!). I think the reasons were obviously because the offenses across the league are improving to the point where they can take advantage of the offensive-friendly rules of the AAF, plus the fact that the books had to adjust the totals so low due to the early low-scoring trend. As I wrote in Point Spread Weekly, I didn’t push the Overs that strong so I don’t expect too many were betting them in Week 5, but at least I hope I talked some readers out of jumping on the Under trend when it was too late.
With the totals still low, I’d expect the Overs to continue closing the gap, but I wouldn’t expect any 4-0 week anytime soon. As for the sides, we’re on a four-week winning streak with our weekly best bet (plus don’t’ forget that last week I also gave out a “degenerate parlay” that hit), so let’s get to the Week 6 card.
Memphis (o/u 39.5) at Salt Lake (-7)
Tuley’s Take: These teams have the worst records in the AAF at 1-4 and replaces last week’s Memphis-Atlanta game for the Bottom-Feeder Bowl. My first thought is that this line shouldn’t be this high, but I can’t pull the trigger on Memphis. Besides, Salt Lake isn’t as bad as its record. In the NFL, I usually go Over in these types of games between also-rans as they’re playing out the string, so I lean to the Over here and if I were to do another degenerate parlay I’d kick it off with the Over. Best Bet: Pass (lean to the Over 39.5).
Arizona (o/u 44.5) at Orlando (-9.5)
Tuley’s Take: Arizona was the preseason AAF title favorite and started 2-0 but is now on a three-game losing streak. Even though I faded the Hot Shots last week and was happy to win with San Antonio, I was fortunate to get off to an early lead with a pick 6 and jumping all over Arizona. However, the Hot Shots played much better in the second half and nearly rallied to win, so they’re not as bad as their current skid and there’s some value in taking this high spread. However, it’s tough to fade the best team in the AAF, Orlando, so I won’t call it a best bet and will instead include in my degenerate parlay with the Memphs-Salt Lake Over. Best Bet: Pass (lean to Arizona 9.5).
San Antonio (o/u 41) at Atlanta (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: San Antonio (our best bet winner the past two week) is a 1.5-point road underdog at the Atlanta Legends on Sunday even though they’re 3-2 and tied for the lead in the AAF’s Western Conference and facing an Atlanta team that started 0-3 but has won two straight to stand at 2-3. However, I’ll take San Antonio’s wins against previously unbeaten Birmingham (which beat Atlanta 28-12 in Week 13) and Arizona over Atlanta’s wins over San Diego (which San Antonio has already split with this season) and Memphis (tied for worst record in the league). Besides, San Antonio’s 37-29 loss to Orlando, the AAF’s best team, back in Week 2 was much better than Atlanta’s 40-6 loss to Orlando in Week 1. I know Atlanta has home-field advantage, but that didn’t help it in the loss to Birmingham, and that the Legends have improved since Aaron Murray took over at quarterback, but the wrong team is favored here (and I believe it’s by more than a field goal). San Antonio QB Logan Woodside leads a balanced offense as he’s supported by Kenneth Farrow, who has the AAF’s highest single-game rushing performance at 142 yards against Birmingham two weeks ago, and they get to face a defense that has allowed a league-worst 24.6 points per game despite facing a weak schedule. Best Bet: San Antonio 1.5.
Birmingham (o/u 36) at San Diego (-6)
Tuley’s Take: When Birmingham was 3-0, I called it a fraud and feel vindicated as the Iron has last the past two weeks. However, I’m not laying 6 points with a San Diego team that looks at times like the team I picked as the best value bet for the AAF title before the season, but then has a defense that fails to step up in crunch time (blowing big lead against lowly Memphis two weeks ago and doing the same against Salt Lake last week before being bailed out by the offense). With the low total, the lean is to the Over. Best Bet: Pass (lean to Over 36).