Tuley's Takes: NFL Week 8

October 26, 2021 07:53 PM
tuley

As I asked in my daily version of this column on VSiN.com: Did you make money betting the NFL last weekend? (Visit vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns for your bookmarking pleasure every morning.)

If you followed along with my best bets here in Point Spread Weekly, we went 5-1 ATS in NFL Week 7, so you certainly had a winning weekend. We also swept our teaser plays with the Broncos, Packers, Dolphins and Patriots, and I included lukewarm support of the Colts.

But even if you just played your own picks, you probably came out ahead as most of the popular sides came through for bettors, even though chalk was just 6-6 ATS over the weekend. That’s because, even though the public usually prefers favorites, some of the underdogs that covered — such as the Bengals, Titans, Colts and Seahawks — were popular plays and helped the Top 5 consensus plays in the Circa Sports Million and SuperContest go 4-1.

But that’s enough reminiscing about last weekend. Let’s go over the NFL Week 8 card. Per usual, I’ll give my recommendations from my dog-or-pass point of view but will also give my pool-play strategy for those who might be in contests in which they have to pick every game.

 

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-6)

This is a great Thursday night matchup with the undefeated Cardinals (7-0) hosting the Packers (6-1). The Cardinals were -3 on the advance line last week. That increased to -3.5 after Arizona routed the Texans on Sunday while the Packers beat Washington 24-10. Then it was announced Monday that Green Bay WR Davante Adams was going into the COVID-19 protocol and the line spiked to Cardinals -6. I’m sure the conventional wisdom, especially among recreational bettors who might not even know the line was lower, will be “you have to take Aaron Rodgers plus the points.” But I’m not so sure. If Washington could outgain the Packers 430 yards to 304, I shudder to think what the Cardinals could do. So, yes, I’m resisting taking the points with Rodgers as a dog. I know it’s against the “Wong teaser” rules as the line is below a touchdown, but I’m tempted to start our Week 8 teasers with the Cardinals just needing to win straight up. Other possible teasers on a second straight week with few advantage teasers (meaning you capture the key numbers of 3 and 7) include the Panthers from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Falcons, the Colts + 1 up to + 7 against the Titans and the Vikings + 2.5 up to + 8.5 vs. the Cowboys. While I lean to the Under as the Cardinals are No. 4 in the league, allowing just 316.7 yards and 16.3 points per game, I’m probably passing due to the thought of the Cardinals’ offense vs. the Green Bay defense, even though the possible absence of Adams helps. Best Bet: Cardinals in teasers (pool play: Cardinals in all my rare contests that include “Thursday Night Football”).

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