As I wrote in my daily version of this column on VSiN.com, thanks to all my friends and longtime readers who made wellness calls to the Tuley’s Takes home office when favorites went 7-0 SU and ATS in the NFL’s early window Sunday.
Despite that, I was doing just fine, as I had won early with the Jaguars’ upset of the Dolphins in London. We also were cashing in with 6-point teasers carried over from the Buccaneers on Thursday to the Jaguars and Chiefs, and the only setback for our teaser portfolio was the Chargers. Things got even better for us in the afternoon games with the Cardinals and Raiders winning outright. That carried over into the Seahawks in their overtime loss at the Steelers on Sunday night and the Titans upsetting the Bills on Monday night as well as covering + 3.5 in the first half.
When the dust had settled on the weekend and favorites had gone 8-6 ATS, we still ended up 4-4 ATS with our recommended bets while also hitting the majority of our teasers.
So let’s go through the NFL Week 7 card. Per usual, I’ll give my recommendations from my dog-or-pass point of view but will also give my pool-play strategy for those who might be in contests in which they have to pick every game.
And please note that our takes on the MLB playoffs as well as occasional NBA and NHL plays appear in “Tuley’s Takes Today” at vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns, so bookmark that and check in every morning.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
This Thursday night matchup looked a lot more appealing a few short weeks ago. Since then, the Broncos’ 3-0 start has been exposed as resulting from a soft early schedule. Meanwhile, the Browns have been decimated with injuries. As of Tuesday, it was looking like Baker Mayfield would play Thursday night, but if you saw him against the Cardinals, he looked like a broken-down QB. Even when healthy, Mayfield usually needs the Browns’ strong running attack to be effective, and that has been a mess with Kareem Hunt out for several weeks and several key injuries along the offensive line. The advance line for this game was Browns -6, and that’s where it reopened Sunday, but it has been coming down with the reports of Cleveland’s walking wounded. So with the Browns fielding a team closer to the ones the Broncos beat to start the season, we like Denver as long as we’re getting 3 points or better. As of Tuesday, the Broncos were still available at + 3.5, but most books were charging added juice of -120, so grab it if still available.
Best Bet: Broncos + 3.5, but no worse than + 3 (pool play: Broncos in my rare contests that include “Thursday Night Football”).