Tuley's Takes: NFL Week 16

December 22, 2021 07:31 AM
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NFL Week 15 was another roller-coaster ride in the “Tuley’s Takes” home office as favorites and underdogs were 7-7 ATS entering Tuesday’s bonus doubleheader, caused by COVID-19.

On one hand, we had a disappointing weekend as we went 2-3 ATS on our best bets in Point Spread Weekly and in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest. Every week my top two best bets are published on Fridays in the New York Post, and I went 2-0 ATS with the Lions + 13 vs. the Cardinals and the Saints + 11 at the Buccaneers — both outright upsets — to improve to 18-12 ATS (60 percent) on the season. But I lost my other three best bets and I’m below .500 on the season with Picks 3 through 5.

If you’ve been following our columns every week, you can probably guess what’s coming next: Our two-team, 6-point teasers again bailed us out and gave us a winning weekend.

After losing with the Patriots + 8.5 on Saturday night (I originally tied them with the Bengals as my top teaser play of the week), we reposted the Bengals + 9 with the Titans + 7.5 as our top teaser (the latter was first posted using the Steelers + 7.5 before there was a change of favorite, though both sides ended up cashing in the Steelers’ 16-13 victory). In addition, we added a Raiders + 9/Vikings -0.5 teaser on Monday morning in “Tuley’s Takes Today” (later amended to Browns + 8.5/Vikings -0.5 when that game also had a change of favorite, though both sides hit in the Raiders’ 16-14 win).

Now let’s look ahead to the holiday weekend’s 16-game card. Per usual, even if I don’t have a strong opinion on a game, I’ll give my pool-play strategy for those in contests where you have to pick every game.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

The 49ers have won two straight and five of six, but I believe the oddsmakers and bettors are overrating them, especially against the Titans. Is everyone forgetting that the Titans, despite losing Derrick Henry and others, are still 9-5 and leading the AFC South? Granted, they’ve lost three of their last four (and the loss to the Texans was especially embarrassing), but I still have them as a short favorite here even without giving anything for home-field advantage. I’ll gladly take the hook here, though shop around as + 4 was available at Circa Sports as of Tuesday morning.

Best Bet: Titans + 3.5 (pool play: Titans in all contests that include Thursday games).

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

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