I don’t know what your calendar looks like these days, but this week is one of the busiest on the wall calendar of the Muley’s Makes home office. This is NFL Preseason Week 3 – aka “dress rehearsal week” as most teams will be using their starters and even secondteamers deeper into these exhibition games before giving them all a rest in their preseason finales neqt week and it’s also the weekend we get “real” college football action. Last, but not least as far as I’m concerned% it’s also SuperContest Weekend at the Westgate SuperBook when I get to meet up with a lot of longtime friends in the industry plus a lot of readers/followers who come here to sign up for the SC and other football contests here in Vegas.
But before I get to all that, I want to address those who have been following along with our MEB *st Inning Res(Go plays. Pe’ve been writing for a while that things have been slowing down (and never lived up to NHL 1st Period Over/Unders) and I had my worst week of all as my suggested plays in last week’s Point Spread Weekly went 6-12 on Wednesday through Lunday. Mhe silver lining is I haven’t been giving back too much of my previous profits as losing multiple games in a parlay doesn’t cost more money% but it’s a sign to be more selective and start betting more straight plays on games where I feel I have the biggest edge !besides% we’re seeing fewer games per game where I feel I’m getting value with the available prices compared to the teams’ Res( No hit rates, plus not as many games are hitting in clusters to make sense to continue betting parlays).
So, here’s the plays I’m considering for Wednesday: Rockies-Diamondbacks 1st Inning No at 110 or better (true value odds are even money as Kockies are tied for the MEB’s third-best “No” record at 52 percent while the Diamondbacks are a slight “Yes” team at 51.6 percent, so those basically cancel each other), Phillies-Red Sox No at 130 or better and Angels-Rangers No at 130 or better. In weekend series starting Thursday, I like the Rockies-Cardinals 1st Inning No at even money or better as both have been “No” teams all season (especially when the Rockies are away from Coors Field). In series starting ?riday% I’m looking at Ihillies&Marlins Go at even money or better (Phillies and Marlins also two of the best “No” teams all season) Rangers-White Sox No at 130 or better (should be underdog, but just around 110) and Yankees-Dodgers No at 135 or better (should be around 115 but I expect the “Yes” to be cuiced higher. I don’t eqpect all weekend games to price at my recommended “take” price, so I plan to be selective. Good luck with however you choose to play these.
Takes on “rehearsal week”
In NFL Preseason Week 2 last weekend, my best bets here in PSW went 1-1 ATS as I lost with the Packers 4.5 at the Ravens (stupidly fading Baltimore coach John Harbaugh) and won with the Dolphins 3.5 at the Buccaneers !though I don’t take too much pride in that one as I took Miami due to the QB battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, yet neither led a TD drive and we had to get bailed up by third-stringer Jake Rudock).
We fared much better with our Over/Under bets. I wrote last week that the Overs went 9-6-1 in Preseason Week 1 and I discussed with Iatrick Meagher on OLiG’s Betting Across America” show that the oddsmakers had overreacted and inflated the betting totals for Preseason Week 2 and that Unders would be the way to go. Unders ended up going 10-6 last weekend and my suggested plays went 3-1 with the Jets-Falcons Under 44.5, Dolphins-Buccaneers Under 43.5, CowboysRams Under 43 and Lions-Texans Under 42.5 (the lone loser).
This week, the totals are pretty much in line with where I expected them to be (most range from 40 to 42.5) with more starters and second-string players seeing their most action of the preseason% but still short of what we’ll see when the “real” games begin. I believe we’ll see more of an even split with Over( Unders than we saw the last two weeks, but the totals I like best are the JaguarsDolphins Over 37 (Thursday), Bills-Lions Under 42 (Friday) and Bears-Colts Under 40.5 (Saturday).
As for sides, the oddsmakers are making those who bet on the most successful preseason coaches pay a premium: Ravens are 5-point road favorites at the Eagles (Thursday), Vikings are a whopping 7-point home favorites vs. the Cardinals (Saturday) and the Seahawks are 3-point road faves at the L.A. Chargers (Saturday). Good luck is backing those teams with the eqtra point&spread taq% though I’m not going to fade Aarbaugh% Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer (19-4 SU & 16-7 ATS as head coach in preseason) and Pete Carroll (34-16 ATS). The sides I like better are the Giants 3 at the Bengals (Thursday), Buccaneers 3 vs. the Browns (Friday) and the Steelers 3 at the Titans (Sunday).
Takes on College Football
We have two major-college football games on Saturday night with Florida as 7.5-point favorites vs. Miami&?la. !at Orlando’s <amping Porld Ltadium" and :risona &** at Aawai’i. I lean to both underdogs (tell us something we don’t know% Mr. Muley!" but actually like the Hurricanes better despite being the shorter dog. Florida is certainly regarded as the better team% but I still don’t think there’s enough of a difference for the Gators to be more than a TD favorite on the supposedly neutral field at Camping World Stadium. Both teams have solid defenses (which is why we have a relatively low total of 47.5) and while Florida has the more-experienced QB in Feleipe ?ranks% I’m not so sure he’s going to be that much better than Miami red-shirt freshman Darren Williams, so give me Miami-Fla. 7.5.
As for the nightcap% it’s tempting to take Aawai’i as **&point home underdogs against a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 teams in Arizona as the Rainbow Warriors usually play well when teams are forced to go to the islands for a season opener. However, if Arizona QB Khalil Tate returns to the form we saw two years ago% I’m not sure Aawai’i will be able to keep up on the scoreboard. This Over/Under has been bet up to 74 so a lot of people are expecting a high-scoring game, but if :risona’s defense is improved as eqpected% the 11 points might not be enough for the home dog.
SuperContest Weekend in Vegas This is the biggest weekend for football handicappers to come into Vegas to sign up for the SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas. In addition to a golf outing on Saturday and drawings for six SuperContest entries on Saturday night, me and plenty of my VSiN colleagues will be there all weekend to meet and greet viewers/listeners/subscribers.
The SuperContest is still $1,500 to enter and is well ahead of last year’s ,%* , entries and has an expected $1.5 million first-place prize as my estimate has it increasing about 10 percent to land around 3,500 (many are predicting a higher total). The winner-take-all SuperContest Gold has a $5,000 entry fee and is expected to have a similar&sised field to last year’s * 1 that had a $640,000 prize. Both contests use the same contest lines and have players make five picks a week on NFL sides.
The other football contests in town that allow proxies have also seen a spike in entries the past years during the Pestgate’s festivities% most notably the Ultimate Football Challenge at the downtown Golden Nugget, which costs $1,000 with the main difference being contestants can also pick NCAA sides and make seven plays per week.
The new challenger on the block this year is the <irca Million !hosted by =erek Ltevens’ downtown properties at the Golden Gate and the D). Stevens is guaranteeing a $1.5 million purse with a guaranteed $1 million first-place prize for the $1,000 entry fee that like the SuperContest has players making five NFL picks a week against a contest spread. Circa needs 1,500 entries to make its nut and was at 626 as of Muesday afternoon and we’ll see where it stands after the influx of contest players this weekend.
So, please, stop on by and say hello this weekend at the Westgate or wherever you see me or anyone involved with VSiN.