Tuley's Takes for World Series

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

I guess we’ve got the World Series most people were hoping for with the Boston Red Sox facing the Los Angeles Dodgers. There were a lot of people joking that FOX’s nightmare would have been for a (relatively) small-market matchup between Milwaukee and Houston, and while TV ratings should definitely get a boost with the East Coast vs. West Coast matchup, it should also be pretty popular in the betting markets as well.

Personally, I was cheering and betting on the Brewers and Astros in the League Championship Series round, and if you followed my recommendations in our LCS betting preview here at VSiN (betting each of those when they were underdogs), you should come out ahead, too, as the Astros were actually only underdogs to the Red Sox in Game 1 and then lost the next four as favorites (which was a pass for me). The Brewers were underdogs in the first six games, splitting 3-3 but showing a 1.09-unit profit (even better if you shopped around) with the plus-money payoffs (they closed as Game 7 home favorites, but even if you grabbed them when they were dogs and had a loss, you would have squeaked out a slight overall profit.

Our recommended Unders were another matter as we lost a net -1.5 units in the LCS round, mostly due to the first four games of the Astros-Red Sox series going Over. Including the LDS round, our recommended plays in these postseason betting guides have gone 11-8-2 with the Unders for a net profit of 1.2 units; sides are 7-8 for a net profit of 1.29 units thanks to the power of plus-money.

Tuley’s Takes in LCS Round

Sides 4-3 for plus-2.19 units/Unders 5-6-1 for minus-1.5 units

Astros-Red Sox

Game 1: Astros plus-110/Under 7 EVEN (WIN/LOSS: Astros 7, Red Sox 2)

Game 2: Under 8 (LOSS: Red Sox 7, Astros 5)

Game 3: Under 8.5 (LOSS: Red Sox 8, Astros 2)

Game 4: Under 8.5 (LOSS: Red Sox 8, Astros 6)

Game 5: Under 8 (WIN: Red Sox 4, Astros 1)

Series: Sides 1-0 for plus 1.1 units/Unders 1-4 for minus-3.3 units

Dodgers-Brewers

Game 1: Brewers plus-144/Under 7.5 (WIN/LOSS: Brewers 6, Dodgers 5)

Game 2: Brewers plus-115/Under 8.5 (LOSS/WIN: Dodgers 4, Brewers 3)

Game 3: Brewers plus-160/Under 7.5 (LOSS/WIN: Brewers 4, Dodgers 0)

Game 4: Brewers plus-135/Under 7.5 (LOSS/WIN: Dodgers 2, Brewers 1)

Game 5: Brewers plus-170/Under 7 (LOSS/PUSH: Dodgers 5, Brewers 2)

Game 6: Brewers plus-105/Under 7.5 (WIN/LOSS: Brewers 7, Dodgers 2)

Game 7: Under 7.5 (WIN: Dodgers 5, Brewers 1)

Series: Sides 3-3 for plus 2.19 units/Unders 4-2-1 for plus-1.8 units

 

Enough about the past, let’s again lay out our betting strategy going game-by-game. Lines are the average lines available at Vegas sports books as of 11 p.m. PT Monday:

Dodgers vs. Red Sox (starts Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Series price: Red Sox -150/Dodgers plus-130

Game 1: Red Sox -140/Dodgers plus-130

Over/under: 7.5 (over EVEN/under -120)

Tuley’s Take: In some ways, this has been a formful postseason as the favorites have won every series except for one – but that one was the Red Sox plus-120 as series underdogs to the Astros (and I didn’t have them despite Boston being the best overall team all season and having home-field advantage in the ALCS). While I have to tip my cap to the Dodgers knocking out the Brewers in 7 games despite Milwaukee having home field, I was even more impressed with the way the Red Sox rolled to four straight wins over the defending champion Astros after dropping the opener. My official prediction for the series is Red Sox in six (I think they could wrap it up in L.A. in Game 5 but feel it’s more likely they have to wait until the series moves back to Game 6 in Boston), though I’m not betting the series price and will again focus on the individual games. A lot of people have been breaking down this matchup and most agree that the Red Sox have the better offense (an MLB-best 5.45 runs per game) while the Dodgers have the better pitching. Well, that’s true by the numbers, but when you factor in that Boston pitchers have to face a DH the whole game while L.A. pitchers usually get a few relatively easy outs against opposing pitchers, I’m not so sure the Dodgers have an edge at all. We also see that in Game 1 with the Red Sox starting Chris Sale (19-10, 2.19 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) and the Dodgers sending out Clayton Kershaw (18-11, 2.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) despite him pitching the final inning of the NLCS clincher on Saturday. I know he’s the ace, but I feel manager Dave Roberts is making a mistake. So, while I’ll continue with the Under in individual games starting with Under 7.5 -120 in Game 1 as I expect Sale and Kershaw to keep the score early before turning it over to the bullpens, I’m going to pass on the Dodgers as underdogs in the opener. I’m much more interested in backing them with Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 2 against David Price but only if getting at least plus-120. When the series moves to L.A., I’ll be looking to back the Red Sox as road underdogs as that should be when we see the best betting value (a lot of people obviously know Boston was 2-0 at the New York Yankees in the ALDS and then 3-0 at Houston in the ALCS, but the Red Sox’s overall road record of 56-30 is even better than L.A.’s home record of 49-38!). Best Bets: Under 7.5 -120 in Game 1 and any other game with over/under of at least 7 runs; Dodgers at plus-120 or better in Game 2 but then Red Sox as road dogs in Games 3 through 5 and if they happen to be home dogs at any time.

 

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