Tuley's Takes for NCAA Elite 8 (Saturday)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 23, 2018 11:31 AM

The dogs keep barking and we hope all our Point Spread Weekly readers keep cashing! I went 2-0 ATS Thursday with my best bets in this week’s PSW with Kansas St. and Florida St. not only both covering as 5.5-point underdogs against Kentucky and Gonzaga, respectively, but both pulling off the outright upsets. That improved our NCAA Tournament best bets in PSW and these VSiN.com weekend updates at 10-4 ATS (71.4%) – we also gave Loyola-Chicago and Michigan as leans, so they’re not included in that record, but hopefully some of you went ahead and hit the 4-team parlay – pending our lone Friday play on Syracuse plus-11 against Duke.

So let’s get right into Saturday’s Elite 8, aka the regional finals, with the unlikely matchup of No. 9 Kansas St. vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago in the South (South? Kansas St. and Chicago?) and No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 9 Florida St. in the West (Wait…What? Michigan and Florida St. in the West?). I haven’t been this geographically confused since Steve Perry sang about a city boy from South Detroit, though maybe this is somehow appropriate as “Don’t Stop Believin’” could be the theme song for any of these four teams and their fan bases.

Here’s our takes on Saturday’s doubleheader:

ELITE 8 (Saturday)

(513) Loyola-Chicago pick ‘em vs. (514) Kansas St. (o/u 127)

6:09 p.m. ET/3:09 p.m. PT (TBS)

Tuley’s Take: Someone asked me on Twitter what I thought this line would be and I replied that I had it at pick ‘em, so I see this as a total toss-up and wouldn’t take either team as a dog of just a point. Both teams are very similar in offensive and defensive efficiency on kenpom.com and obviously both playing consistently better than they have all season. I think it’s funny that while Loyola ousted No. 3 Tennessee and Kansas St. knocked off No. 5 Kentucky, both have also benefitted by other teams doing their dirty week in the South Regional: Buffalo knocking No. 4 Arizona, UMBC beating No. 1 Virginia and Nevada ousting No. 2 Cincinnati, yet none of those teams are still dancing. While I don’t really like a side, I do like this to go Over 127 points. Since I expect this to be a close game, I also expect the starters to play late and for no one to be running out the clock at the end (and late fouls in a tight game can also help push it over). Yes, I know both teams are 3-0 with the under so far in the NCAA Tournament (with Loyola on an 8-game under run overall), but this is where the oddsmakers have finally caught up with them by setting this total so low. I have this in the upper 130s. Best Bet: Over 127; lean: Loyola-Chicago pick ‘em.

(515) Florida St. plus-4.5 vs. (516) Michigan (o/u 143)

8:29 p.m. ET/5:29 p.m. PT (TBS)

Tuley’s Take: Is any team playing better than Michigan amidst all the madness? The Wolverines are on a serious roll, winning 12 straight games including winning the Big Ten Tournament title and then obviously winning their three games in the Big Dance. They’re also an impressive 10-2 ATS during that run, so can we really fade a team like that? Yes, I believe we should. I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the Wolverines right now as I passed in going against them with Montana in the first round or with Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. What about the other game? Well, I did take Houston plus the points in their second-round meeting and got the cover and nearly the outright upset. I feel Florida St. matches up with Michigan even better than Houston did, especially with the way the Seminoles have played on their equally impressive 3-0 SU & ATS run in March Madness, including upsets of No. 1 Xavier and No. 4 Gonzaga. If that doesn’t convince you they’re legit, nothing will. There’s no marquee star and they go 10-deep to make up in quantity in what they lack in Grade A quality. Florida St. should also push the pace quicker than what the Wolverines are comfortable playing; sure, Michigan will hit some 3-pointers in transition, but also likely to have more turnovers. Even if Florida St. gets behind by more than the spread, the Wolverine’s poor free-throw shooting can help the Seminoles get right back in the game. I made this line Michigan -2, so I expect this to come down to the final buzzer. Best Bet: Florida St. plus-4.5.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close