Tuley's Takes for Golden Knights-Jets and Celtics-Cavaliers

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

May 11, 2018 01:39 AM

LAS VEGAS – As promised in this week’s Point Spread Weekly, we’re back with our betting previews and strategies for the NHL and NBA series that were determined after Issue No. 37 was posted on Wednesday. Odds are from VSiN’s host hotel at the South Point as of Thursday night.

NHL CONFERENCE FINAL

Saturday, May 12

Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets

Series price: Jets -140/Golden Knights plus-120

Game 1: Jets -140, o/u 6 under -120

Tuley’s Take: I’ve had a really good handle on both these teams during the playoffs. I went with the unders in their first-round series (3-0-1 in Vegas-Los Angeles, 4-1 in Winnipeg-Minnesota) and then after siding with the Predators when they were road dogs (2-1 in the three games in Winnipeg), I had a change of heart and went with the Jets in Game 7 at plus-130 road dogs. While I’ve been impressed with how the Jets have performed in the playoffs, I still have to side with the hometown Golden Knights, who won the season series 2-1, especially in Game 1. The NHL didn’t do the Jets any favors by rushing this game to Saturday night after the Jets won in Nashville Thursday night; granted, the Golden Knights have a quick trip, too, but they knew they were heading somewhere for the weekend and are well-rested after disposing of the Sharks back on Sunday (and if you’re thinking “rust” instead of “rest,” Vegas came off a 9-day layoff after the series win over the Kings to rout the Sharks 7-0 off the layoff). I’m also going to take the overs in the first two games of the series. After both were under teams in their opening series, I’m glad I backed off in the second round as the Golden Knights were 4-2 with the over, averaging 3.67 goals per game, while the Jets were 4-3 with the over, averaging 3.86 goals (and that includes being shut out 4-0 in Game 6 and another loss with 1 goal). Both goalies have been superb, but they’re going to get peppered with shots from both these offenses, so I look an exciting, high-scoring series. Best Bet: Golden Knights as plus-120 underdogs in Game 1 as well as Over 6 EVEN, bet Golden Knight as dogs again in Game 2 if they lose Game 1 otherwise pass; we’ll reaccess both sides and totals in next Wednesday’s PSW.

NBA CONFERENCE FINAL

Sunday, May 13

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Series price: Cavs -290/Celtics plus-245

Game 1: Cavaliers -1, o/u 203.5

Tuley’s Take: The Raptors underachieved again in the East and the 76ers’ process still has some maturing to do so we’re left with a matchup for a trip to the Finals that was seen as the most likely before the season started but there were many in doubt after the Celtics suffered a slew of injuries, most notably Gordon Heyward in the season-opener and Kyrie Irving late in the regular season. There was a ton of talk about teams trying to get the No. 7 seed in the East to face the short-handed Celtics. I passed on that series, but was impressed that while the Celtics were taken to seven games by the Bucks, they were 5-2 ATS as everyone (oddsmakers, bettors, etc.) were still disrespecting them. I made the big mistake of not taking the Celtics as 5-point home dogs in the series opener against the 76ers and didn’t make that mistake again, cashing on them in Games 2, 3 (and after skipping Game 4 as is customary as I don’t like betting Game 4s with a team going for a sweep) and 5. I’m as impressed as everyone else with what Brad Stevens has done with this team (I remember when he left Butler, where he got the most from the least, and doubters said that doesn’t work in the NBA), and it is a team against the mostly one-man team in the Cleveland LeBrons. I know it’s risky going against King James as it seems like his birthright to go to the NBA Finals each year, but I have to stick with the Celtics – at least against the spread. Note: Amal Shah did ask me on Brent Musburger’s “My Guys in the Desest” on VSiN on Thursday if I was considering the Celtics on the series price, but I said I was going to pass as it’s hard to go against LeBron James in a best-of-seven (but I am confident we can still have a winning record betting ATS). Best Bet: Celtics as 1-point home dogs in Games 1 and Game 2, then as bigger road dogs when the series moves to Cleveland (will pass on Game 4 if they happen to fall behind 3-0).

Good luck this weekend (and every weekend!).

  

 

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