Tuley's Takes Extra! on World Series

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 21, 2019 03:41 PM

As promised in last Wednesday’s Point Spread Weekly, this is your Tuley’s Takes Extra! betting preview for the World Series with the Houston Astros taking on the upstart Washington Nationals.

We’re still showing a slight profit after the League Championship Series. We were 11-11 and plus-.0.91 units when we left off in last Wednesday’s PSW (and stated we would take Yankees as home dogs or road dogs of plus-200 or better, plus Over any totals lower than 8). We won with Over 7.5 in Thursday’s Game 4 (passing on the Yankees as home favorites) and won with the Yankees plus-130 in Friday’s Game 5 but lost on the Over 7.5 -120. That put our official posted plays at 13-12 for a net profit of 2.01 units. Note: we didn’t have an official best bet in Saturday’s Game 6 as the Yankees were priced too low (plus-130) and the Over/Under was set at 9, though I did post on Twitter @ViewFromVegas that I was taking Under 9 like we did in Game 1. That was a bad beat as it was looking like a 4-2 score until the Yankees rallied with two runs in the top of the ninth inning and the Astros won it on Jose Altuve’s two-run, walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth for the 6-4 victory (hopefully my regular readers here didn’t’ see the Tweet!).

Anyway, let’s look at this intriguing matchup (odds are from VSiN’s host hotel as the South Point as of Monday afternoon):

Nationals vs. Astros

Series: Astros -220/Nationals plus-190

Game 1: Astros -200/Nationals plus-180, O/U 6.5 Over -120

Tuley’s Take: Houston ackers and analytics guys can quote you chapter and verse about how the Astros are clearly the best team in baseball and dominate the Nationals in nearly every category – and I’m not disputing that. But I wrote in my NLCS preview two weeks ago in my last “Tuley’s Takes Extra!” that the Nationals “have the look of a team of destiny” and I’m sticking to that. They have the starting pitching to match up with the Astros and their offense does whatever is necessary, especially in the late innings, and their bullpen (the worst to ever make the playoffs, I think I heard; again, the exact stats don’t matter in my handicapping) has even come through when it counts most. I’m taking the Nationals plus-190 for the series (similar to what we had in the NLDS vs. the similarly heavily-favored Dodgers!) and anytime as underdogs in the series, starting with plus-180 in Game 1. The actual better bet each game might be the Nationals in the first 5 innings (plus-165 in Game 1) as that way we don’t have to count on the Nationals’ shaky bullpen and just rely on the starting matchups of Max Scherzer vs. Gerrit Cole in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander in Game 2, Patrick Corbin vs. Zack Greinke in Game 3, etc. I’m planning to pass on the Over/Unders in the individual games as I do expect pitching to dominate the series and we’re already seeing in Game 1 that oddsmakers are shading the number low at 6.5 (though some books are offering 7 with the Under juiced at -125). Best Bet: Nationals plus-190 in series and any game as underdogs (probably combining with plays on the Nationals ML in first 5 innings).

 

 

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