Tuley's Takes Extra! for NFL Week 17

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 29, 2018 04:55 PM

LAS VEGAS – Welcome to the promised “Tuley’s Takes Extra!” for NFL Week 17 as we go over changes in the lines since Point Spread Weekly came out on Wednesday and see if we want to change our “takes” on any of the games.

For the record, my official “Best Bets” as posted in PSW were Jets plus-13 at the Patriots, Browns plus-5.5 at the Ravens and Bengals plus-14 at Steelers (note: as we mention every week, the lines used are from the South Point as of Tuesday, though any regular reader knows I preach to shop around for the best number you can get and that’s usually means waiting on my underdogs even though I have to grade against my posted lines – and we’re sure we’re getting at least 13.5 on the Jets, Browns plus-6.5 and Bengals plus-14.5). In totals wagering, my best bets were on Lions-Packers Over 44.5 and Falcons-Buccaneers Over 51.5 (those have both gone up, so if you want to follow along you should grab those ASAP).

Here are the changes we want to discuss for Sunday’s card…lines are now listed from the South Point as of Saturday afternoon:

Panthers (o/u 42.5) at Saints (-7)

Tuley’s Take: This was off the board when PSW went to press. The South Point opened with Saints -9 but with the Saints expected to rest more starters for the playoffs, it has come down to a touchdown. This would normally be a spot where I would like the underdog, but with Kyle Allen starting at QB for the Panthers, I don’t know what to expect and will gladly pass on this game (besides, Teddy Bridgewater is starting for the Saints and this could be a showcase game for him – but, no, I’m not considering including the Saints on teasers). Best Bet: Pass.

Eagles (-7) at Redskins (o/u 42)

Tuley’s Take: In PSW, the Redskins were plus-6.5 at that time and I actually wrote “Pass for now, expecting to take Redskins plus-7 or better” and that’s exactly how I feel now that the line is up to 7. The Eagles are peaking at the right time, but I’ve seen enough effort-wise from the Redskins in their win over the Jaguars and loss to the Titans to think they’ve been able to be a live home underdog here. Adjusted Best Bet: Redskins at plus-7 or better.

Browns (o/u 40.5) at Ravens (-6.5)

Tuley’s Take: Same as above here as it was only Browns plus-5.5 on Tuesday but now it’s up to 6.5 and we have to wait now to see if we can get plus-7. Don’t forget that the Browns won the earlier meeting this season with Baker Mayfield throwing for 342 yards against the Ravens’ defense in a 12-9 victory. It’s true the Ravens are playing better than they were at that time, but there’s still some questions around QB Lamar Jackson. I’m not saying he’s going to choke (though it would be fine by me), but I’ll take my chances with the hungry Browns trying to end the season to win coach Gregg Williams the permanent head coaching job and send a message to the rest of the AFC North. Adjusted Best Bet: Browns plus-6.5 or better.

Falcons-Buccaneers & Dolphins-Bills)

Tuley’s Take: These games have both had significant line moves with the Falcons going from 1-point road underdogs at the Buccaneers to 2.5-point road favorites and the Bills going from 3.5-point home favorites up to -5.5; however, I don’t believe the lines have been over adjusted (and neither crosses a key number), so I’m still passing on both games, except for the aforementioned Falcons-Bucs Over 51.5.

49ers (o/u 48.5) at Rams (-10.5)

Tuley’s Take: This line was just Rams -9.5 at the South Point on Tuesday and I wrote “Pass, but waiting for best number on 49ers.” Well, plus-10.5 is definitely a better number though I’m seeing some movement that tells me we might get plus-11 closer to kickoff. Adjusted Best Bet: 49ers plus-10.5 or better.

Colts (-3) at Titans (o/u 44)

Tuley’s Take: This win-and-you’re-in game for the AFC’s last playoff spot was also off the board earlier in the week due to Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota being questionable with a stinger. The line is now up and we’re assuming it’s based on Blaine Gabbert getting the start. I wrote “leaning toward Titans” and glad that we were able to grab plus-3.5. The line has been wavering back and forth between 3 and 3.5 so definitely shop around for the best line on the side you like. I would probably still plus-3 if that was my only option, but it’s a Best Bet with the hook. Adjusted Best Bet: Titans plus-3.5.




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