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Tuley's Takes: Can Diamondbacks break favorites' early run?

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 6, 2017 12:59 PM

Dave Tuley senior reporter

LAS VEGAS --After Thursday’s ALDS sweep by the home favored Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians, favorites are 4-0 so far in the MLB playoffs while overs lead unders 3-1 as the Yankees-Indians came was the first under after three straight overs.

Here is my look at the NLDS starting Friday:

Note: all odds are from VSiN’s home at the South Point unless otherwise noted:

Series Price: Washington Nationals minus-140/Chicago Cubs plus-120

Game 1: Cubs (o/u 7 over -135) at Astros (-175), 7:30 p.m. ET Friday

Tuley’s Take: Disclosure: I grew up a die-hard Cubs fan in the Chicago suburbs, but I believe that taught me to bet with my head and not my heart, so I think I can still be objective. Having said that (“Curb Your Enthusiasm” reference), I believe there’s a little value on the Cubs series price mostly based on the recent playoff performances of the two teams: the Cubs have a ton of World Series-ring-wearing players while the Nationals haven’t gotten over the proverbial hump despite some good teams in recent years. However, the Nationals are certainly a dangerous team and I’ve already stated in our MLB playoff piece earlier this week before the wild-card games that I believe the winner of this series has a great shot to go all the way. I also suggested to bet both teams in World Series futures to create our own prop, but beyond that I’m going to pass on the individual games in this series unless I really feel a side or total is mispriced in the later games. The plays: Pass, except taking both teams in World Series futures to have the survivor at decent odds.

Series Price: Los Angeles Dodgers minus-245/Arizona Diamondbacks plus-205

Game 1: Diamondbacks (o/u 7 over -125) at Dodgers (-260), 10:30 p.m. ET Friday

Tuley’s Take: This is hopefully my “Upset Special” of the opening round as I give the Diamondbacks a great shot to knock off the Dodgers, who had the best record in baseball. However, the D-backs won the season series 11-8, including the last six meetings! They were 0-2 vs. LA’s Game 1 starter, Clayton Kershaw, so they were an even better 11-6 in games he didn’t start, so I’m basically counting on them winning 2 of the 3 games and just needing to split the games they face Kershaw, and based on his playoff history, I love my chances. Now, I know Kershaw exorcised a lot of postseason demons last year by winning two games and saving another, but he’s still 4-7 in his playoff career with a 4.55 ERA, so I still feel another October letdown is possible. I’m taking the Diamondbacks on the series price but also taking plus-230 or better in Game 1 (again, assuming we fade Kershaw twice, we come out ahead if we split those bets, plus I’d love our position on the series). As for totals, I’ll pass on the games in Chavez Ravine and lean to the overs when the series moves to Phoenix. The plays: Diamondbacks plus-205 (shop for better price if you can find it), Diamondbacks plus-230 in Game 1, lean to overs in Games 3 and 4 (if necessary).

American League update

In the ALDS betting preview, I had some advance plays, and I wanted to provide an update on one of them going Friday at 5:05 p.m. ET:

Yankees at Indians: I wrote that if the Yankees lost Game 1 (which they did), I would back them with C.C. Sabathia in Game 2, so that’s a play and widely available at plus-200. Note: I gave the Yankees to win the series and I’m sure to hear from people about the current price of plus-300 with them trailing 1-0. I wouldn’t bet BOTH the Game 2 price and the adjusted series price, but I could see if you want to make a case that it’s better to take the plus-300 since the Yankees pretty much have to win Game 2 if they’re going to have a chance in the series anyway, so it makes sense to take the higher price – the counter-argument is to take the plus-200 now and if they win Game 2 you get paid right away instead of having to wait for them to win the series, which they would still be underdogs to do.

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