Tuley's Take Today: Sunday recaps, updated ATS stats, Monday Best Bets 6/13

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 


Sunday was another action-filled day in the Tuley’s Takes home office even though we didn’t have any NBA or NHL games to entertain us. We still had a full state of MLB along with golf, auto racing, USFL, etc.

It didn’t start that great for yours truly as the A’s lost 6-3 at the Guardians as our Best Bet, but we ended up OK with the Giants beating the Dodgers 2-0 to complete a three-game weekend sweep and the Bandits-Maulers game staying Under 42.5.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action and then look at Monday’s card as we finally get the resumption of the NBA Finals.

Sunday’s recaps

MLB: Underdogs went 8-7 Sunday with biggest upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 165 in 13-1 rout at Phillies, who had 9-game win streak snapped), Rockies (+ 165 in 4-2 win at Padres) and Reds (+ 140 in 7-6 win at Cardinals). Braves (-140) beat Pirates 5-3 for 11th straight win. Road teams went 10-5. Unders 8-7.

More MLB: Faves still lead 536-348 SU (60.6 percent) on season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams' lead was cut to 466-435 (51.7 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead just 441-415-43 (51.5 percent).

USFL: Stars (-8.5) beat Maulers 17-16 but did NOT cover (stayed Under 47.5). Breakers (-3.5) did cover in 17-6 win vs. Bandits (stayed way Under 43.5). Faves 2-0 SU on the day but just 1-1 ATS. Unders went 2-0. Faves went 3-1 SU in Week 9 but dogs went 3-1 ATS. On the season, faves are 27-9 SU but just 18-17-1 ATS (51.4 percent). Unders went 3-1 in Week 9 (Unders' 1st winning week since Week 3), but Overs still lead 20-16 (55.6 percent) overall.

NBA: No game since Friday, but here’s the playoff betting stats: Faves/dogs back to .500 at 2-2 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals. Faves still lead 56-29 SU and 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) overall. Home/road teams are 2-2 SU and ATS while 51-34 SU and 44-41 ATS (51.8 percent) overall. The zig-zig is 3-0 ATS so far in the Finals with the teams alternating wins so far and 40-30 ATS (57.1 percent) overall. Over/Unders are 2-2 in the FInals, while Unders lead 50-35 (58.8 percent).

Monday’s Takes

Celtics + 4 at Warriors: We still have our series bet on the Celtics, but we’ve said all along that this was an evenly matched series and we’ve seen that as these teams have alternated games with the zig-zag starting 3-0 ATS so far. I don’t see any reason for the Celtics not to bounce back here. And as I said with Greg Peterson on “The Lookahead” show last night, it’s added value to take the + 4 (or + 3.5 at some book, but definitely shop around) in case we finally get a game where the points come into play.

Marlins + 125 at Phillies: We almost made this our play of the day as the Phillies are in an anti-swagger spot as their 9-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday. But, again, as we discussed with Peterson, I would see value at this price even if not for the anti-swagger aspect as this game appears to be overpriced because of the Phillies’ recent run. The Marlins have the starting pitching edge with Sandy Alcantra (6-2 with the Marlins 8-4 in his starts, plus 1.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP) against Aaron Nola (4-4 with Phillies 4-8 in his starts, plus 3.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP).

Lightning + 155 series price vs. Avalanche: We’re not sure if the Avalanche will have rest of rust after the long layoff before the Stanley Cup Finals finally starts on Wednesday, but we’re counting on the two-time defending champs to steal at least one of the two first two games in Colorado.

Good luck today (and every day!).



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