Tuley: Tuesday Best Bet, Contest Corner, NFL Week 12 picks

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 22, 2022 04:51 AM
John_Paddock

Monday was busier than usual in the Tuley’s Takes home office as all our deadlines are moved up this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Unfortunately, we ended what was otherwise a very profitable weekend by losing our Best Bet on the Cardinals +8 vs. the 49ers on Monday Night Football in the 49ers’ 38-10 rout.

But it’s still just one loss, and we’re still having an awesome month as we’re 15-6 ATS (71.4%) with our daily Best Bets, including 11-3 ATS (78.6%) the last two weeks.

Among my regular Monday duties is doing a MNF recap story for our website at VSiN.com, including updating our weekly and season-long betting stats. You can see this week’s story HERE

Let’s get to the rest of Monday’s recaps, including taking a peek into Contest Corner with a Circa Survivor update as well as the leaderboards in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, and then give our Best Bet for Tuesday as well as our early NFL Week 12 picks.

Monday’s Recaps

NFL: 49ers (-9.5) routed the Cardinals 38-10 on Monday Night Football in Mexico City to wrap up Week 11 (game went Over the total of 43 points). Faves went 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS in Week 11. Road teams led 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS with 2 neutral-site games (CLE-BUF in Detroit & SF-AZ on MNF). Overs led 8-6, which is actually the first time this season that Overs finished above .500 (best prior results were 8-8 in Week 3, 8-8 in Week 4, 7-7 in Week 7, 7-7-1 in Week 8 and 7-7 in Week 10) while primetime Overs swept 3-0 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. 

More NFL: Faves lead 99-62-1 SU on the season with 2 PKs, but dogs still lead 88-68-6 ATS (56.4%). Home teams lead 85-72-1 SU with 6 neutral-site games, but road teams lead 78-74-6 ATS (51.3%. Unders still lead 92-70-2 (56.8%) and primetime Unders dipped to 19-14-1 (57.6%).

NBA: Faves went 6-2 SU but only 4-4 ATS. The upsets were by the Bulls (+5.5 vs. Celtics) and Knicks (+1.5 at Thunder) while Blazers (+9.5 at Bucks) and Heat (+8.5 at Timberwolves) covered in SU losses. Home teams went 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. Unders led 5-3.

More NBA: On the season, faves lead 167-84 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 129-113-9 ATS (53.3%). Home teams lead 158-97 SU and 128-118-9 ATS (52%). Overs' lead in totals wagering dipped to 126-124-5 (50.2%).

CBB: No. 10 Creighton beat No. 21 Texas Tech 76-65 and covered as 3.5-point favorite at the Maui Invitational in Monday’s only game between ranked teams as the rest of the Top 25 teams in action all won straight-up, though No. Duke (-24) did fail to cover in 74-57 win vs. Bellarmine.

NHL: Faves/dogs split 5-5 with biggest upsets by the Jets (+150 vs. Hurricanes) and Islanders (+150 at Maple Leafs). Home/road teams also split 5-5. Overs led 6-3-1 with the push in OTT-SJ (6). On the season, faves lead 170-123 with 8 PKs, home teams lead 159-138 while Overs took lead at 147-145-9.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor has 74 live entries as 15 survived with the 49ers on Monday Night Football. There were only 12 eliminated in NFL Week 11 as 3 lost with the Packers on Thursday night and 9 on the Giants on Sunday. Survivors must now pick a winner from Thursday's 3 holiday games and then another on the rest of NFL Week 12 card.

Circa Sports Million still has co-leaders as Enut34-1 and TAIL PARTY-2 both went 3-1-1 in NFL Week 11 to improve to 39-14-2 (73.6%). Their 40 points (1 point per win, 0.5 per push) are 2.5 points ahead of 9 contestants who are tied for 3rd place with 37.5 points.

SuperContest has a new leader as HEINEKEN 21 went 4-0-1 in NFL Week 11 to improve to 39-14-2 (73.6%), half a point ahead of 2nd-place JHAAS07, who also went 4-0-1. JORD20 leads the winner-take-all #SuperContestGold at 37-16-2 (69.8%).

Tuesday's Best Bet

Ball State +3 at Miami-Ohio: Dogs have been the way to go in these midweek MACtion games as they’re 9-4 ATS since these games started in November. Home-field advantage has also not been a factor as road teams are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS, so we feel any points are value between these two 5-6 teams as both are trying to become bowl-eligible. Ball State still has some players from the conference title team of two years ago, so this is what we in the horse racing game call “back class.” Ball State QB John Paddock (2,606 passing yards with 18 TDs) is complemented by RB Carson Steele (1,376 rushing yards, 12 TDs) and should get the Cardinals their sixth victory.

Early NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Lions +10 vs. Bills: The +10 at DraftKings didn’t last long Sunday night after we gave it out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” – but we’re still OK at +8,5 or better.

Bears +4 at Jets: When we jumped on this line on Sunday night, we didn’t believe Justin Fields’ injury was too serious. The line went as high as +6 on speculation that he could be out at least this Sunday and possibly longer (with coach Matt Eberfus not ruling out that Fields might be done for the season). We obviously prefer Fields to be playing, but we’ll still back the Bears with backup Trevor Siemian as this is also a play against a Jets team that has its own problems and the team possibly turning on QB Zach Wilson.

Raiders +4 at Seahawks: Looks like we grabbed this at the right time as it’s a pretty solid 3.5 as of this writing.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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