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Tuley Takes Today: Friday recaps, Saturday best bets in Final Four, NHL (4/2)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

April 2, 2022 05:51 AM
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Friday was an interesting day to say the least in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office. It started with an April Fools’ joke from our parent company, DraftKings, and also included a top-secret business lunch (I’ll share the details when the time is right) and then taking my middle daughter, Peyton, to dinner at Olive Garden for her 18th birthday.

Unfortunately, our Best Bet of the day wasn’t as interesting or as fun as any of that as the Coyotes + 115 lost 5-0 to the Ducks. It took less than 4 minutes to give up the first goal and they never threatened as they trailed 3-0 less than 10 minutes into the game. That dropped our record to 32-15-1 ATS (68.1 percent) with our top play of the day the past 48 day. We don’t often do swagger or anti-swagger plays in hockey, but we don’t regret it as we’re pretty sure that teams coming off snapping a 6-game losing streak are profitable long-term when an underdog to a team on an 11-game losing streak which the Ducks were. Now, we have to decide if we will play the Ducks as a swagger play on Sunday when they host the Oilers.

Our only regret is that we didn’t just use our top NHL First-Period Over play as our Best Bet as Blues-Oilers 1P Over 1.5 -165 was one of the easiest winners you’ll ever see. The Oilers scored just 1:50 in the game and then the Blues scored just 4:29 into the game to cash for us. Even if you had to go Over 2, that cashed just 30 seconds later as there were 3 goals scored in the first 5 minutes of the game and the Oilers led 4-1 after the first period.

Anyway,  let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting results in the major team sports and try to make better decisions with our plays on Saturday.

Friday’s recaps

CBB: Fresno State beat Coastal Carolina 85-74 in The Basketball Classic Championship Game. The Bulldogs also covered after closing as 3-point favorites as the game flew way Over the betting total of 126.5 points.

NBA: Favorites and underdogs split 5-5 SU on Friday, but dogs led 6-4 ATS with the difference being the Pacers (+ 15) covering in their 128-123 loss at the Celtics. The upsets were by the Wizards (+ 7.5 in 135-103 rout vs. the Mavericks), Clippers (+ 3.5 in 153-119 rout at the Bucks), Grizzlies (+ 7.5 122-114 win vs. the Suns), Timberwolves (+ 3 in 136-130 at the Nuggets) and Pelicans (+ 2 in 114-111 win at the Lakers). Overs went 7-3.

NHL: Faves went 4-3 with the upsets by the Sabres (+ 168 in 4-3 win vs. Predators), Islanders (+ 145 in 3-0 win at Rangers) and Senators (+ 100 in 5-2 win at Red Wings). Overs went 5-2.

Saturday’s Takes

North Carolina + 4.5 vs. Duke: The Final Four is finally here after 6 days of waiting. This game is the nightcap but I like it as our Best Bet of the day, starting all the way back on “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night (note: our weekly appearance moves up to 10:15 p.m. PT/7:15 p.m. PT this Sunday). Duke has been  -4 at the majority of books all week, though I advised the other day that there were several + 4.5s available. We’re counting on North Carolina to spoil Coach K’s last dance, or at least stay within the number in a close game.

Villanova + 4.5 vs. Kansas: This is more solid at 4.5 (though WynnBET was dealing + 5 on Wednesday but it disappeared on Thursday), but I also advised readers of this column to grab the best number as some books are down to 4.

Panthers-Devils First-Period Over 1.5: This should probably be my Best Bet of the day if you can find Over 1.5 as these are the teams that have been best to us with these wagers. The Panthers are No. 1 in the NHL at  47-20 (70.2 percent) with 1P Overs (all stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter) and on an 8-2 run and 29-8 in their last 37 games while the Devils are 44-23 (65.7 percent) and on a 19-6 run, so I would even lay up to -195 (overnight price at DraftKings, though I can’t bet there as DK employee) on Over 1.5. Hopefully it’s another easy winner even for those going Over 2.

Speaking of betting chalk, in addition to the aforementioned swagger play on the Ducks vs. the Oilers on Sunday, there’s a anti-swagger play in the NHL on Saturday as the Wild had their 7-game winning streak snapped the other day. The play would be on the Hurricanes (-142 at Circa, -150 at other books overnight) vs. the Wild.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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