We hope you’re enjoying the spring and summer as much as we are at the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We’re fresh off celebrating the upset victories in the NHL & NBA championship series with the St. Louis Blues and Toronto Raptors. In fact, it’s been a pretty awesome 2019 overall when you throw in Clemson winning the CFB playoff title game and our seven-game ATS streak in the Alliance of American Football. Now, I can hear the critics already, saying “But all you do is pick underdogs, so you’ve just been lucky they’ve all been winning.” But let’s rewind to the Super Bowl when I had the AFC 3.5 from back in the fall and still said the Patriots were the right side after they were bet to favoritism, refusing to take the Rams as underdogs like everyone assumed I would – plus let’s not forget that our run with NHL 1st Period Over/Unders had nothing to do with underdogs either. So let the haters hate.
Anyway, I thought this would be a good time to repost my future bets that are currently outstanding – and we hope they’re outstanding!!! (That joke is stolen from longtime sports betting radio host John Kelly.) I’ll run through them in the order they’ll be decided (first MLB, then NFL), and then take a look at the other major sports to see if we can find any value after the recent shakeups, especially the NBA in the wake of the Anthony Davis trade to the Lakers.
TULEY’S TAKES ON MLB
World Series futures (from PSW #31, April 27)
I also took the Rays Over 85 wins and 10/1 to win the AL East. Those prices are long gone as the Rays are currently around 12-1 to win the World Series and battling the Yankees in the AL East (division odds aren’t always posted at a lot of books, though William Hill had the Rays at 2-1 to win the AL East on Tuesday afternoon). Twins 25/1 I also took the Twins Over 84.5 wins and 3/1 to win the AL Central. Those bets are in even better shape with the Twins having the best record in MLB heading into Tuesday’s action and a 10-game lead over the Indians. They’re 1/60 at William Hill.
TULEY’S TAKES ON NFL
Super Bowl futures (from PSW #24, Feb. 6)
This was my value future bet last year. They were never as good as their 9-game winning streak indicated, but showed me enough that they’ll be among the top AFC contenders again this year. I wasn’t thrilled they lost Tyrann Mathieu and didn’t sign Le’Veon Bell as hoped, but that’s why we’re now seeing prices as high as 45/1 at Circa Sports.
The Eagles are just a year removed from being Super Bowl champions and are certainly capable of another run. The team is again fully Carson Wentz’s with the departure of Nick Foles (we’ll see if that was the right move) and I like my chances at 20/1. The market is mostly down to 14/1 with 18/1 at William Hill as of Tuesday afternoon.
NFL WEEK 1 WAGERS
(from PSW #35, April 24)
Falcons 4.5 at Vikings
As with all four of these Week 1 plays, I basically felt they would drop by gameday. I had these two teams rated closer to pick ‘em and definitely felt this line would move closer to a field goal. It’s down to 4 at most books, though 4.5 is still available at several Vegas books including South Point, the Caesars network and Station Casinos.
Bills 3.5 at Jets
I felt this should be Jets -3, so grabbed the hook right away as I was pretty sure it was never heading higher. You can still get 3.5 at Westgate & CG Technology with most other books dealing 3 EVEN (and Jets -3 -120).
Colts 3.5 at Chargers
Another market play that I’m happy to be on the right side of so far as it’s pretty much Chargers -3 everywhere with Treasure Island actually down to 2.5 (note: there’s also some offshore indications that the line could continue heading that way, so if you’re with me on the Colts you might want to grab that 3 ASAP).
Giants 7.5 vs. Cowboys
Here’s another where we’re happy to get the hook on a key number; 7.5 is still available at the Westgate, Wynn plus William Hill & MGM networks, but it’s down to 7 at the majority of books.
NFL OVER/UNDER SEASON WIN TOTALS
(PSW #39, May 22)
Giants Over 6
I got it at 110 and it’s still 110 at Westgate.
Bears Over 9
The Bears are becoming a popular play so it’s no surprise their Over is up to -130. I still think that’s the better play as opposed to Circa’s alternate “high” line of Over 10 215 (unless you REALLY expect them to get to 11).
Buccaneers Under 6
This is up to 6.5 at Westgate with -120 on the Under, which I think is fine to lay in order to get the win instead of the push if the Bucs win exactly 6 games.
Jets Under 7.5
This is still a solid -110 and I still think it’s a solid Under bet.
Jaguars Under 8: I’m glad I grabbed this early as it’s now -135 on the Under at Westgate. Still, I wouldn’t advise going Under 7.5 since part of my reasoning for liking Under 8 was the push for a .500 season as the Jaguars still have a good defense plus Nick Foles.
Chiefs Over 10
I bet this at Over 10, but in the PSW piece I also recommend Over 10.5 at plus money. Well, it’s now mostly available at Over 10.5 130. The Chiefs have their issues (Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, etc.), but should still be among the AFC’s elite.
TULEY’S TAKES ON NBA & NHL FUTURES
The futures markets have been going crazy since the seasons ended, especially the NBA. If you thought the Lakers would make the moves to give LeBron James a contending team, you needed to grab them when they were double-digit odds. We’ve heard several stories of bettors who did just that – whether they had inside information or just speculated that the Lakers would eventually get Anthony Davis – so they got the best prices. I certainly don’t see to make up for added value at the current price of 3/1.
The Bucks should contend again, 6/1 is also too short to take a year in advance. The Warriors – despite losing Kevin Durant for the next year and possibly forever – might be the best value on the board at 12/1, especially if you believe Klay Thompson will be back by playoff time next season. Other than that, it’s even a bigger guessing game as far as which NBA teams can land the free agents they’re pursuing or keep their superstars like the defending champion Raptors with Kawhi Leonard.
The NHL seems a little more settled, but that also means the top contenders are already lower priced: Lightning 6/1, Golden Knights 7/1, Bruins 10/1, Maple Leafs 10/1, Avalanche 10/1 and defending champion Blues 14/1. The Blues might be worth a flier if you believe they can repeat as that price at least seems fair. However, I think the better value play is the Stars at 30/1. Their defense and goaltending should be among the best again and at a pretty juicy price.