We had great starts with our playoff best bets in the NHL (from last week’s Point Spread Weekly) and NBA (posted on VSiN.com) this past week.
It couldn’t have started much better with the Blue Jackets-Lightning (two #FollowtheMoney Over teams facing each other, which hit 83% during the regular season) going Over in the 1st Period in last Wednesday’s Game 1 and followed by our other best bet of the day, Stars 1P Under 1.5, staying Under. The other FTM6 teams in action, Penguins and Sharks, split but we finished up 3 units on the day with our two-team parlays. The rest of the past week, we were mostly trading money and added just 1 more unit of profit ( 4 for the week) with our parlay strategy (results will vary depending how you were parlaying these or playing straight), highlighted by rare straight plays on the Stars 1P Unders on Saturday and Monday when no other FTM teams were in action. And then Tuesday featured a sweep as we had parlays with the Blue Jackets-Lightning 1P Over to the Penguins 1P Over and also to the Sharks 1P Over for another 4.5 units in profit.
The NBA started just as well with the Nets and Magic pulling outright upsets in Saturday’s Game 1s, but we unfortunately lost with the Clippers vs. the Warriors and passed on the Spurs in their upset of the Nuggets. Sunday was chalky with faves going 4-0 ATS so fortunately I only had two plays on the Pacers and Jazz but then bounced back with the Clippers in their epic comeback against the Warriors (unfortunately no money-line play as I was on a college trip with my daughter, but hopefully some of you had it). Anyway, we stand at 3-4 ATS overall heading into this week after losing on the Magic on Tuesday night.
Let’s just do updates from what I wrote in those articles and apply what I wrote to the games this upcoming week. In some cases, I might be speculating if a team will be an underdog but I’ll fall back on my “dog-orpass” philosophy and pass if the market makes my team the favorite (note the exception with the Spurs):
Tuley’s Takes on NHL playoffs
As we saw Saturday and Monday, the Stars 1P Under is the only play of the day so I’m playing it straight again. The advance lines on this game have the 1P Under vig at -185, which is higher than we’ve had to be playing lately on the Stars, but they’re 3-0 so far in the playoffs so as long as we can expect them to hit at least 67% (-200 to break even), it’s still a play.
With the Penguins swept out of the playoffs, we’re left with a straight bet on the Sharks 1P Over (estimated -170).
No play with the Lightning getting swept out of the playoffs.
The schedule just gives us a straight play on the Stars 1P Under and hopefully it’s not more than the -185 from Wednesday.
Another easy call here with just a straight bet on the Sharks 1P Over with the Golden Knights.
I really hope the Stars-Predators series is still going for a 1P Under play.
We only have a straight play on the Golden KnightSharks if their series goes the full seven games (note: if second-round NHL series start before next week’s PSW comes out on Wednesday, I’ll post an EXTRA! “Tuley’s Takes” column in advance of those series and maybe that will add a few more plays/parlay opportunities to these last couple of days).
Tuley’s Takes on NBA playoffs
The Pacers and Jazz both let me down in their Sunday openers vs. the Celtics and Rockets, but I’m back on them as 7.5-point & 6.5-point road underdogs, respectively. I wrote that I wanted to back the Pistons against the Bucks, but that was only if Blake Griffin was returning (and close to 100 percent), so I’m now passing.
The Nets split the two games in Philly, and now with them getting 3 at home, I’m back on the Nets in Game 3. As of press time, we don’t have a line on the Nuggets-Spurs game on Thursday, but I wrote in my NBA preview that I would be on the Spurs in Game 3 as a home underdog or even laying up to -3 on them as short home faves. I also wrote I would only back the Clippers as double-digit dogs; well, the line is up to 8.5 for Thursday’s Game 3, so I’ll be monitoring it and will take it at 10 (and it might get there with the public knowing the Warriors led the Clippers by 31 points before losing on Monday night and assuming they’ll be out for revenge).
I’m on record as just wanting to back the Magic as a dog vs. the Raptors, so we’ll wait to see if we’re getting points in Friday’s Game 3. I’m also expecting to take Trail Blazers as home dogs vs. the Thunder.
Same thing as their previous meetings, I’ll be on the Nets, Spurs and Jazz if they’re home dogs (Spurs also as short home faves).
I’ll only be on the Clippers as double-digit home dogs vs. the Warriors and the Magic or Trail Blazers as road dogs of any kind.
Unless Blake Griffin makes miraculous recovery and pulls a “Willis Reed,” I’ll keep passing on the Pistons and expect I’ll just be on the Jazz this night if a home dog.
I’ll probably just be on the Nets and Magic as road dogs in their respective Game 5s.
Good luck this week (and every week)!