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Tuley: My take on every Week 16 NFL game

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Christmas came a week early here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as NFL underdogs went 10-5-1 ATS, including huge upsets by the Jets and Bengals as double-digit underdogs. We went 5-3 with our best ATS bets here in this column, plus 2-0 with Overs in the Chargers-Raiders and 49ers-Cowboys games for an overall week of 7-3.

In addition, we went 4-1 ATS on college conference championship weekend, including Ball State winning the MAC title at 10-1 as I predicted. For my 10 best bets in the bowls, check out the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide.

Back to the NFL ... I wrote last week that Week 15 had been great to me over the years, and it certainly came through again. As I also wrote, some might call it a coincidence, but I really do believe it’s a case of oddsmakers and public bettors dismissing some teams and overrating others, which leads to overly inflated lines of which we can take advantage. Now the challenge is to objectively analyze where we are and determine whether value exists on these big dogs or whether the oddsmakers are shading the other way.

Some adjustments have been made, such as the Jets being + 9.5 this week vs. the Browns when it was + 10.5 on some advance lines, but most of the lines look about what we were expecting.

So let’s get to NFL Week 16 with a full slate of games. There is no Thursday nighter, but we get a rare Friday game on Christmas and three Saturday games.

Per usual, I’ll give my takes on each game. Even if I don’t have an opinion that I think warrants a bet, I’ll include my pool plays, in which I give my level of confidence for SU and ATS contests, especially for those of us who have pools in which we have to make a pick on every game.

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