Tuley: My favorite Super Bowl LV prop bets

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

February 3, 2021 11:50 AM
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Some people are complaining of Super Bowl fatigue with Patrick Mahomes in the big game for the second straight year and Tom Brady playing in his 10th overall, but we love it here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Some of our best Super Sundays have involved these two QBs.

 

We can only hope this year’s game is half as profitable as last year’s. While everyone was expecting me to pick the underdog 49ers last year, I went with a two-team, 6-point teaser on the Chiefs + 4.5/Over 48, and that worked out nicely with the Chiefs’ 31-20 victory. I also won the vast majority of our props, including long shots such as Mahomes to score the first TD (14-1 as well as first Chiefs TD at 12-1), double result on halftime tie/Chiefs win at 12-1, Chiefs to score exactly 31 points at 12-1 and total points between 51-55 at 6-1.

I’ve written many times about how I recommend tying prop bets to the way you handicap the game, while sprinkling in a few independent of the outcome. I plan to do that again, and since I expect a relatively close game again this year, a lot of my props will be the same.

Super Bowl home | Betting guide | Expert picks | Biggest bets | Cross-sport props Point Spread Weekly

 

So without further ado ...

 

Chiefs (-3) vs. Buccaneers (O/U 56.5)

 

While I couldn’t pull the trigger on the underdog 49ers last year or the Rams the year before, I love the Buccaneers getting the + 3.5. If you have been unable to grab it yet, we hope it comes back over the weekend while the public loads up on the favored Chiefs. It’s obviously better to get the hook, but we’re also confident Bucs + 3 (EVEN) is a strong play.

 

We could write chapter and verse about all the matchups and stats, but it comes down to the fact these teams are closer than a field goal in my power ratings and the game should be closer to pick-’em. I see this as ending up right around 27-24 either way, so I also like Under 56.5 and think all four teaser combinations could hit if you choose to play it that way. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs won the regular-season meeting 27-24, with the Buccaneers rallying to get the back-door cover as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was the game in which Mahomes and Tyreek Hill hooked up seven times for 203 yards and two TDs in the first quarter(!), yet the Buccaneers still covered. I see no reason this shouldn’t also be a back-and-forth game, with the SU and ATS results hanging in the balance late and the spread possibly coming into play.

 

Props tied to my game predictions

 

Game tied after 0-0? (Yes, -110)

This is pretty simple. We’re just cheering for the game to be tied at some point, just like last year, when it was 10-10 at halftime, or the year before, when the Patriots and Rams were tied 3-3.

 

Largest lead (Under 14.5 points, + 100)

Again, with a back-and-forth game, we just need neither team to go up by more than two touchdowns. We’ve cashed this the last three Super Bowls, and we still get even money on it.

 

Double result of halftime/game winner (Tie/Chiefs 12-1 and Tie/Buccaneers 15-1)

This looks more complicated, but we’re basically betting that the game is tied at halftime (like last year when we cashed this again), and then it doesn’t matter who wins the game. We found this at 14.25-1 and 18.5-1 at Circa, but most other books were around the 12-1 and 15-1. You can even bet a little more on Tie/Chiefs (25% more in our stated odds) if you want to win the same amount.

 

Will K.C. or T.B. score three straight times (No + 180)?

This is usually a sucker bet. It looks like a juicy price, though there usually are at least three unanswered scores in most NFL games (which is why the “yes” is favored at more than -200). But I trust Mahomes and Brady to answer if the other drives to back-to-back scores.

 

Will there be overtime? (Yes, 8-1)

This is also usually a sucker bet -- and only one of the previous Super Bowls have gone to overtime, so books offer a cheap price. But I’m taking a shot with it this year as, again, anything can happen in a close, back-and-forth game. Plus I trust Mahomes and Brady if they need to rally from three, seven or eight points late. This scenario also would cash our first bet if we don’t get the tie at halftime or elsewhere.

 

Total points scored, between 51-55 (Yes, 6-1)

VSiN colleague Jonathan Von Tobel put me on this last year, and I like it again Sunday. It cashes if the game comes just below the total of 56.5 yet pays a nice 6-1. If you lean to the Over, you could add the 56-60 range, which also pays 6-1 and still gives you 3-1 for the game landing between 51 and 60, which we see as much more likely than one time in four.

 

Here are some other props …

 

Brady to score first TD (25-1)

On the VSiN NFL Consensus Page, I was asked to recommend a “Player to Score First TD.” I went with Brady, so I have to bet it now and think I should include it here. Brady rarely runs these days, but he’s still great at the quarterback sneak, and maybe he’ll call his own number if the Bucs get inside the Chiefs’ 1-yard line. I would also love to see a naked bootleg near the goal line, as the Chiefs wouldn’t be expecting that. Or, hey, why not a “Tampa Bay Special” like the Eagles ran against the Patriots three years ago?

 

Jersey number of first player to score TD (Under 17.5, -110)

You could take a bigger price on an individual player, but I prefer this option as you get both

quarterbacks as well as Chiefs receivers Tyreek Hill (10), Demarcus Robinson (11), Sammy

Watkins (14) and Mecole Hardman (17) as well as Buccaneers WRs Scotty Miller (10), Mike Evans (13) and Chris Godwin (14). You could bet the running backs or tight ends separately if you want to cover those possibilities.

 

Total number of players to have a passing attempt (Over 2.5, + 160)

I lost with this one last year, but I’m coming back with it. As noted above, a “Philadelphia Special” redux could be in the works for Brady, plus the Chiefs have it in their playbook too. We don’t condone cheering for a quarterback injury, but it also would cash if a backup is pressed into duty even if just for one pass — and we know Andy Reid trusts his backup, Chad Henne.

 

Shortest touchdown (Under 1.5 yards, -170)

I’ve been recommending this prop year after year, back from when we used to get plus money on it. We cashed it the last four years and six of the last seven, so the argument could be made that the books still haven’t adjusted enough as the juice is up to -170. Your call, but again we love the scenario of a QB sneak by Brady.

 

Good luck with however you play the Super Bowl.

 

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