Tuley: Monday Night Football Best Bet, Contest Corner, NFL Week 14

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 5, 2022 11:35 AM
Tom_Brady_Saints

Sunday was another exciting NFL in the Tuley’s Takes home office – and out and about in the sportsbooks – though it was a little too chalky for my liking.

As I’ll recap below, faves went 11-1-1 SU and 9-4 ATS on the day. I lost my Best Bet on the Colts +10.5 at the Cowboys in the Sunday nighter as it looked like they were going to cover (and should have been leading at halftime before one of Matt Ryan’s untimely turnovers) before the Cowboys ran over them in the second half of a 54-19 rout.

Despite the loss, I’m still 24-13-1 ATS (64.9%) with my daily top play here in these columns since Oct. 27. But I’ve actually been more proud of my record of early NFL picks that I’ve been giving out on my weekly Sunday night appearances on “The Greg Peterson Experience” (12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT or 15 minutes into the archived version) as my VSiN colleague Jason Latus has me at 26-12 ATS (68.4%) since the start of the football season and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) since the start of November after winning with the Broncos +8.5 on Sunday in their 10-9 loss at the Ravens. (Note: our last play from a week ago Sunday goes tonight on the Saints +6 vs. the Buccaneers – more on that at the end of this column).

Anyway, the Colts’ loss ended a disappointing day as I won with that Broncos play but lost with the Jets +3, Falcons pick-’em and Titans +5 as my other top plays. Somehow, I ended up actually coming out ahead on the day as we swept all of our 2-team, 6-point teasers from throughout the week as Lions +7.5, Giants +8.5, Browns -1, Seahawks -1.5 and Raiders +8 all cashed no matter what combinations you bet them (I also added some teasers on Sunday with the Chargers +7.5 after the favorite flipped in the Raiders-Chargers game and ended up middling that in the Raiders’ 27-20 victory).

All in all, it felt pretty good for your dog-or-pass columnist to come out ahead on such a chalky day.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action, take a peek into Contest Corner and then repeat today’s Best Bet on Monday Night Football as well as listing the NFL Week 14 plays we gave out on last night’s show.

Sunday’s Recaps

NFL: Cowboys (-11) routed Colts 54-19 on Sunday Night Football as game flew Over betting total of 54 points). On Sunday's Week 13 card, faves dominated at 11-1-1 SU (WAS-NYG tied 20-20) and 9-4 ATS. The only upset was by the Bengals (+2.5 in 27-24 win vs. Chiefs). Home teams went 7-5-1 SU and 8-5 ATS. Overs led 7-6.

More NFL: On the season, faves lead 121-67-2 SU with 4 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 99-85-6 ATS (53.8%). Home teams improved to 103-83-2 SU with 6 neutral-site games and 94-88-6 ATS (51.6%). Unders dropped to 107-85-2 (55.7%) while primetime Unders dipped to 20-18-1 (52.6%).

Even more NFL: Faves went 7-0-1 SU in early Sunday’s early games (WAS-NYG played to a 20-20 tie) and 6-2 ATS. Giants +2.5 covered and Broncos (+8.5) in 10-9 loss at Ravens. Road teams went 4-3-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. Unders led 5-3. In the afternoon, faves went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Bengals (+2) upset Chiefs 27-24. Rams (+6.5) covered in 27-23 loss vs. Seahawks. 49ers (-5) & Raiders (-2.5) covered as chalk. Home teams 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS with Rams covering as home dog. Over/Unders split 2-2.

CBB: Nebraska upset No. 7 Creighton 63-53 as 14.5-point underdog and +900 on money line. Northwestern upset No. 20 Michigan State 70-63 as 6-point dog and +230 ML. Virginia Tech beat No. 18 North Carolina 80-72 in game that closed pick-'em.

NBA: Faves went 6-2 SU and ATS on Sunday with outright upsets by the Lakers (+2 in 130-119 win at Wizards) and Knicks (+3 in 92-81 win vs. Cavaliers). Home/road teams split 4-4 SU and ATS. Unders led 6-2. On the season, faves lead 229-116 SU with 6 pick-’ems and also take lead at 167-165-13 ATS (50.3%). Home teams lead 216-135 SU and 179-159-13 ATS (53%). Overs' slim lead in totals wagering dipped to 175-171-5 (50.6%).

NHL: Faves went 4-1 Sunday (after going 12-1 Saturday). The lone upset was by the Wild (+135 in 6-5 shootout win at Stars). Home teams went 3-2. Overs 3-2. On season, faves lead 230-155 with 10 PKs. Home teams lead 202-189 with 4 neutral-site games. Unders' lead dipped to 191-190-14.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 70 live entries after only 1 was eliminated Sunday on the Jaguars. The rest of the final 70 vying for the $6.133 million prize pool used the Browns (36), Seahawks (26), Cowboys (5), Ravens (2) and Vikings (1).

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 13 (dipping to 32-29-4, 52.5%, on season). The wins were on the Lions +1 (No. 1 picks improved to 9-4, 69.2%) and Giants +2.5. Losses were on the Titans +4.5, Chiefs -2 and Dolphins +4.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 in NFL Week 13 (35-29-1, 54.7%, on season). Wins were on the Lions +1 and Raiders +1.5. Losses were on the Titans +5 (No. 1 picks dropped to 6-7), Chiefs -2 and Dolphins +4

Monday Best Bet

Saints +3.5 at Buccaneers: We hope all our followers were listening to our weekly 12:15 a.m. ET/9:15 p.m. PT Sunday night appearance on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when I said I missed the +6.5 opener on the Saints but it was widely available at +6. I also gave it out in the Monday version of this column and in the VSiN daily newsletter, so hopefully everyone joined me as the line is now down to 3.5. If you haven’t bet it yet, I still like the Saints as long as the line is above 3 as we used them in our contests at +3.5. The reasoning stays the same as Dennis Allen’s New Orleans defense is kryptonite to Tom Brady’s Superman. After going 0-4 against the Saints his first two years in Tampa (with 6 TDs and 8 INTs, including 2 pick-6s), Brady finally beat them 20-10 in this year’s first meeting in Week 2. But the defense still fared well, just like it did last Sunday in a 13-0 loss at the 49ers and another pocket QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. The Saints were obviously embarrassed by being shut out by the 49ers – especially as they squandered so many chances, including two goal-to-go opportunities on their last two drives in the fourth quarter. We expect the Saints’ D to keep them close and for the offense to bounce back with a great chance at the outright upset to further tighten up the NFC South race.

Early NFL Week 14 bets

Jets +10 at Bills (Circa)

Giants +7 vs. Eagles (Circa)

Broncos +9 vs. Chiefs (widely available, +9.5 at DraftKings)

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