Monday Best Bets, Sunday Recaps
Sunday was another huge sports betting day with the Masters, plus the NBA and NHL heading towards the playoffs and baseball in full swing.
Personally, I was following it all while also taking the family to “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and driving back home from visiting my oldest child, Jordyn, at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Ariz. Unfortunately, while everything went right Saturday on the sports betting side (especially hitting a round-robin of four plays with our NHL First-Period Overs), we gave back a couple of units on Sunday.
I lost my supposed Best Bet of the day on the Cardinals First 5 Innings +130 at the Brewers (along with a +140 full-game money-line bet) as the Brewers led 3-1 after 5 innings on the way to a 6-1 victory. I also lost on the Pistons +5.5 at the Bulls as they stuck around for more than three quarters (the Bulls only led by 3 points heading to the final quarter), but Chicago pulled away to the 103-81 spread-covering victory.
At least we salvaged the day in the XFL with a win by the DC Defenders +2 at the Seattle Sea Dragons as they went gate-to-wire as the right side the whole game and held on for the 34-33 outright upset. Another silver lining is that there wasn’t more than one good NHL 1P Over play on the day and we avoided a loss as the Avalanche-Ducks stayed Under 1.5.
Let’s get to the rest of our (full-game) recaps of Sunday’s betting action like we did on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when we got home at our regularly scheduled spot at 11:15 p.m. ET/8:15 p.m. PT (or 15 minutes into the archived version), and then look for more winners on Monday, plus an early NBA play-in tournament play for Tuesday.
NBA: Favorites went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS on Sunday's final day of the regular season. The Suns (+9.5) and Jazz (+17) covered in SU losses. The upsets were by the Pacers (+9.5 at Knicks), Hornets (+6.5 at Cavaliers), Nuggets (+5.5 vs. Kings), Pelicans (+3.5 at Timberwolves) and 76ers (+1 at Nets). The home teams went 8-7 SU and ATS. Overs 9-6.
More NBA: Faves finished season at 808-406 SU with 16 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs finished slightly ahead at 597-590-27 ATS (50.3%). Home teams led 715-515 SU and 613-592-25 ATS (50.9%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead improved to finish 619-593-18 (51.1%).
MLB: Faves went 8-6 Sunday with Rangers-Cubs closing PK. Road teams led 8-7. Overs 10-5. The biggest upsets were by the Reds (+178 at Phillies), Marlins (+125 at Mets), Blue Jays (+120 at Angels) and Diamondbacks (+119 vs. Dodgers). On the season, faves lead 83-56 with 2 PKs. Road teams lead 72-69. In totals wagering, Overs lead 78-57-6.
NHL: Faves swept 2-0 on Sunday's short card as the Bruins (-230) beat the Flyers 5-3 for their record-setting 63rd win of season (game went Over 6 goals) and the Avalanche (-340) beat the Ducks 5-4 in OT (went Over 6.5). Road teams also swept 2-0. Overs also 2-0.
DC Defenders upset the Seattle Sea Dragons 34-33 as 1.5-point road dogs on Sunday to wrap up Week 8 (flew Over betting total of 46 points). Earlier, Houston Roughnecks beat San Antonio Brahmas 17-15 but didn't cover as 6.5-point road faves (stayed Under 38.5).
More XFL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 SU in Week 8 but dogs swept 4-0 ATS. Road teams went 3-1 SU and ATS in Week 8. Unders led 3-1 on weekend. Faves lead 22-9 SU and 16-14-1 ATS with 1 PK through 8 weeks. Home/road teams tied 16-16 SU but road teams lead 16-15-1 ATS. Unders lead 16-15-1.
Monday MLB Best Bet
Yankees First 5 Innings +130 at Guardians: We get the Yankees at plus-money with Domingo German vs. Shane Bieber? We’ll take it! I still regard the Yankees as the better offense (especially if teams continue to pitch to Aaron Judge, who homered twice on Sunday) and while I would take Bieber over German, I don’t think he’s that much better to warrant being this big of a favorite.
Monday NHL Best Bet
Kraken-Coyotes 1P Over 1.5 -160 / Canucks-Kings 1P Over 1.5 -160 (PARLAY PAYS +164): After sweeping Saturday’s round-robin, we’re back with this play as the Kraken are the No. 7 1P Over team on the season with the Coyotes hot lately at 8-2 in their last 10 and 18-4 in their last 22 as both teams combine for 92-66 (58.2%) with 1P Overs. The Canucks-Kings play is even stronger as the Canucks are still the No. 1 team at 57-21 (73.1%) and combine with the Kings to go 97-61 (61.4%). Beware of books shading these to Over 2 goals.
Tuesday NBA Best Bet
Timberwolves +6.5 at Lakers: As I mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I’m giving out this play early, but fully expect that it’ll get bet higher by gametime on Tuesday. The Lakers closed the regular season strong despite finishing with the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference and needing to survive in the play-in tourney, and have become a popular dark-horse future-book play. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves had an ugly end to the regular season on Sunday, losing Jaden McDaniels to injury and then Ruby Gobert was sent home early after taking a swing at a teammate. The conventional wisdom out there (and I’ve already heard/seen a lot of TV talking-heads stoke the fire) is that the T-Wolves are in disarray and will get blown out by the Lakers, which is why I expect this line to go higher as the public starts buying more into these narratives. However, I’ve been a lot of teams band together when the masses are counting them out, and don’t forget that Minnesota still closed the regular season with a 3-game winning streak and are certainly capable of at least covering against a Lakers team that I certainly wouldn’t trust laying 6.5 or more points.