LAS VEGAS – Welcome to a special edition of Tuley’s Takes Extra!
I do these occasionally on the VSiN.com website to supplement what we do in Point Spread Weekly. It’s usually to give my take on a game that wasn’t on the betting boards when we went to press earlier in the week. I generally don’t feel updates are needed just because of line moves – even significant ones – because I trust that my readers are savvy enough to be tracking the market to be able to time their bets at the optimum whether they’re following my plays (or even if they’re fading them).
For instance, I didn’t feel a need to post an update Friday with the Bahamas Bowl when my best bet went from Florida International plus 5 vs. Toledo to plus 7. I trust anyone joining me on FIU would have seen the line was slowly creeping up and waiting to get the best price.
In the NFL this week, there’s several other cases where I’m sure many of you are aware that I picked against the current lines (as of Tuesday) in PSW on the Buccaneers plus 7 at the Cowboys, Bills plus 12.5 at the Patriots, Giants plus 9.5 at the Colts, Bengals plus 8 at the Browns and 49ers plus 3.5 vs. the Bears, but don’t need me to tell you to wait to get better numbers (which we can get in almost all cases, and hopefully even better by game time).
However, there’s been more changes in the NFL lines than usual, mostly due to situations like Cam Newton being sat for the rest of the season, Aaron Rodgers seemingly winning his case to keep playing out the string, etc. These have been discussed at length on VSiN, but I felt it would be best to give my revised takes in case my intentions aren’t as clear this week. Besides, this also acts as an update for those readers who haven't gotten around to reading PSW yet this week, whether it's because you're been busy catching up on holiday shopping or maybe trying to finish up duties at your "day job" with next week not being a regular work week. Lines are from the South Point as of Friday night unless where indicated
Falcons (-2.5) at Panthers (o/u 44.5)
Tuley’s Take: This line was Carolina -2.5 in PSW and has had a change in favorite after Newton was declared out and replaced by Taylor Heinicke. Even though I had a lean to the Falcons, I passed on them as short faves and certainly wouldn’t be laying points with them now (especially I’m not sure how much Heinicke will struggle in his first pro start against a depleted Atlanta defense. I originally suggested to tease the Falcons from plus 2.5 to plus 8.5, but that opportunity is long gone. Adjusted Best Best: Pass.
Giants (o/u 47.5) at Colts (-9.5)
Tuley’s Take: These lines are pretty much the same as when PSW came out, but I just want to post a reminder that I picked the Giants plus 9.5 with the caveat that I’m waiting for plus 10. With Odell Beckham Jr. being declared out, I’m more confident that this will hit double digits over the weekend. Adjusted Best Best: Giants plus 9.5 but still wait for plus 10.
Texans (o/u 45) at Eagles (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: We caught this line adjustment from the opener of Texans -3.5 to Eagles -2 (mostly due to the Eagles’ upset of the Rams last Sunday night), but it’s settled at -1.5 later in the week at most books. But I still stand by my pick for the Texans to win outright and also to be used in teasers. Adjusted Best Bet: Texans plus 1.5 and even stronger teaser play to plus 7.5.
Packers (-2.5) at Jets (o/u 46.5)
Tuley’s Take: This was pick ‘em in PSW with the stated uncertainty about whether Aaron Rodgers would play. With him upgraded to probable, the Packers are now -2.5. In a way, I’m not sure that’s been adjusted enough but I’m going to stay away and also stay away from tempting teaser on the Jets up to plus 8.5 (that’s your call if you choose to use them). I am, however, sticking with my pick on the Over. It was Over 44 in PSW and hopefully you grabbed it around that number, but I still believe it’s a play at the new total of 46.5. I was willing to go Over 44 with DeShone Kizer getting the start, so I have to think Rodgers is good for at least an extra field goal, right? Adjusted Best Bet: Over 46.5 (and, of course, shop around as a few 46s were available Friday night).
Bengals (o/u 44) at Browns (-9.5)
Tuley’s Take: I said it before in the intro, but I recommended the Bengals when only getting 8 in PSW, so I love them more at plus 9.5 or whatever the market offers us. Best Bet: Bengals plus 9.5 or higher.
Bears (-4) at 49ers (o/u 43)
Tuley’s Take: Same thing here. 49ers were a play at plus 3.5 and certainly like it better at plus 4 and we’re seeing some 4.5s out there so be patient. Best Bet: 49ers 4 or higher.
Good luck this weekend (and every weekend!). And happy holidays to you and yours.