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Tuesday Sharp Report for Celtics-Grizzlies, Orioles-Phillies and Braves-Yankees

August 11, 2020 12:05 AM

NBA underdogs posted another winning day on Monday, going 3-2 ATS. Dogs scored a pair of outright wins, including the Mavericks (+ 6) over the Jazz 122-114 and the Raptors (+ 5.5) over the Bucks 114-106. Dogs are now 34-31 ATS (52.3%) in the bubble. If the line stays the same or moves toward the dog (think + 6.5 to + 6), bubble dogs are 19-14 ATS (57.6%). This movement is key because typically the public leans on favorites, so if the line moves toward the dog that is usually a result of sharp action.

Overs went 3-2 yesterday to improve to 37-28 (56.9%). If the total rises at least a half point, the over is 21-14 (60%). 

We are nearing the end of the 8-game bubble schedule with most teams only having one or two games left. Bettors need to pay close attention to motivation along with who is playing and who isn't. Some teams are fighting for playoff spots while others have been eliminated or are locked into their seed and can't move up or down. As a result, we're starting to see teams pack it in or rest players in preparation for the postseason. Make sure you check injury reports before betting any of the remaining regular season games. 

Today we have a loaded slate with 7 NBA games, 14 MLB games and 4 NHL playoffs games. Let's discuss a trio of games taking in some sharp action from respected bettors. 

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET. 

5 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics (47-23) vs Memphis Grizzlies (33-38)

This late afternoon, early evening matinee has massive implications for the teetering Grizzlies. After entering the bubble with a stranglehold on the final playoff seed out West, Memphis has gone 1-5 since the restart and now only leads the surging Blazers by a half-game for the 8-seed. Meanwhile, the Celtics don't have much to play for. Boston has wrapped up the 3-seed in the East and can't move up or down. The Celtics have won 3-straight and are 4-2 in the bubble. This line opened with Boston listed as a 5.5-point favorite. Pros immediately grabbed the points with the desperate Grizzlies. This overload of smart money has forced oddsmakers to drop Boston down to -4.5 or even -4 at some books. Keep an eye out to see if Boston rests any of their starters with nothing to play for. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (7-7) vs Philadelphia Phillies (5-6)

The Orioles have surprised fans and bettors this season. No one expected them to be anywhere close to .500 at this point. Baltimore enters this Interleague Series riding a 2-game winning streak after taking a pair from the Nats. The Phillies are a win from reaching .500 after taking down the Braves 13-8 last night. Philadelphia was a classic sharp fade the trendy dog play as they opened at -140 and closed near -150 despite receiving less than half the tickets. Tonight, Baltimore sends out Alex Cobb (1-1. 2.51 ERA) against Phillies prized free agent acquisition Zack Wheeler (2-0, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as heavy -170 favorites and the Orioles a + 155 dog. Wiseguys have immediately steamed Bryce Harper and company, jacking this line up to Phillies -185. The total is 9. The forecast calls for mid-80s and humid with 5-10 MPH winds out to dead-center. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (11-7) at New York Yankees (10-6)

Could we be looking at a possible World Series preview? The Braves are coming off a 13-8 loss to Philadelphia last night -- which snapped a 2-game winning streak. Meanwhile, New York is looking to get back on track after dropping three of four to Tampa Bay. This pitching matchup is less than stellar with Touki Toussaint (0-0, 6.08 ERA) facing Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 5.59 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a moderately heavy -160 favorite and the Braves a + 150 dog. Despite two-thirds of bets rushing to the window to lay the moneyline with the Yankees, we've actually seen the line fall to New York -150. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Braves (+ 150 to + 140). Atlanta is also a contrarian road dog with a high total (10), a profitable spot historically. The more expected runs scored, the more it leads to variance and upset opportunities.

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states

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