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Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Rays-Dodgers World Series Game 1

October 19, 2020 11:18 PM

Last night's Monday Night Football doubleheader resulted in dogs and favorites splitting 1-1 ATS and unders going a perfect 2-0. In the early game, the Chiefs (-5.5) won and covered in Buffalo, beating the Bills 26-17. Kansas City opened as a 3-point favorite and got steamed up to -5.5 behind a combination of public and early sharp support. Late, early and middle bettors all cashed on the Chiefs. Smart money cashed on the under. The total opened 57.5, closed 55.5 and landed on 43.

In the late game, the sharps got it completely wrong with the Cowboys (-1), who got crushed by the Cardinals 38-10. Dallas opened as a 3-point dog and got hit with an overload of sharp action from the respected bettors, pushing them all the way to a 1-point favorite. It's important to remember that sharps don't win every time. Many people think wiseguys win 75% of the time or more. The truth is that respected pros win roughly 55% of the time. So this means out of 100 plays, sharps will lose 45. Sometimes smart money looks really dumb, like it did on the Cowboys. With sharp action, you are playing a long game. Over the long run, it wins more often than it loses. Don't let the bad losses make you question its validity moving forward.

The under also cashed in this one. The total opened at 54.5, got bet up to 56.5 and easily sailed under, landing at 48. The Cowboys have been awful to bettors so far this season. Dallas is now 2-4 straight up and 0-6 ATS. The only other 0-6 ATS team in the NFL is the Jets.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-1 p.m. ET and then Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where sharp action is flowing for the World Series.

8:09 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Welcome to Game 1 of the World Series. Both of these teams are coming off thrilling Game 7 wins to reach the Fall Classic, with the Rays beating the Astros and the Dodgers edging the Braves. In tonight's opener, the Rays will start young phenom Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA) while the Dodgers counter with lefty ace Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.16 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as -165 favorites and the Rays a + 155 dog. Bets are relatively split down the middle, but we've seen some sharp money hit the Dodgers, pushing Los Angeles up to -170. Favorites are 31-16 (66%) so far in the MLB postseason.

We've seen sharp money also target this under. A slight majority of bets are going over, yet the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5. Sharps hit the under 8 early, causing the drop. The series will be played at Globe Life Ballpark, new home of the Texas Rangers. The roof is expected to be open and the wind is blowing out to left at roughly 10 MPH. Unders are 26-21 (55%) this postseason.

The Dodgers are -200 favorites (67% implied probability) to win the series at BetMGM. The Rays are + 165 underdogs.

Here are the exact series prices.

Dodgers win 4-0 (+ 800)

Dodgers win 4-1 (+ 400)

Dodgers win 4-2 (+ 350)

Dodgers win 4-3 (+ 400)

Rays win 4-0 (+ 2200)

Rays win 4-1 (+ 1100)

Rays win 4-2 (+ 650)

Rays win 4-3 (+ 550)

Here are the World Series MVP odds

Betts + 500

Seager + 750

Arozarena + 800

Bellinger, Glasnow + 1000

Turner + 1100

Lowe + 1200

Kershaw + 1500

Muncy, Buehler + 1800

Pollock + 2200

Snell, Choi, Meadows, Smith Morton + 2500

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