Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Oklahoma State-Miami and Colorado-Texas

December 28, 2020 11:34 PM

The Bills rolled for the betting public last night, crushing the Patriots 38-9 on Monday Night Football and easily covering as 7-point road favorites. Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point favorite and got bet up to -7.5 before some late Patriots buyback dropped it back down to 7. In the end, it didn't matter as Buffalo covered all numbers without a sweat. The total ended up pushing at 47. However, in yet another example of how important it is to get the right number, sharp over money pushed the total up from 45 to 47. This means early bettors who took over 45, 45.5, 46 and 46.5 all cashed. Many bettors were also able to cash a popular 2-team, 6-point teaser with the Bills -1 and Over 41.

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday. We have a loaded slate with two college football bowl games, 20-plus college hoops games and 10 NBA games.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the sharp money is flowing for today's two Bowl Games...

5:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State vs Miami Florida

This is the Cheez-It Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Oklahoma State (7-3, ranked 21st) finished 3rd in the Big 12. The Cowboys started the season 4-0 but went just 3-3 the rest of the way, although they did end the regular season on a high note, crushing Baylor 42-3. Meanwhile, Miami (8-2, ranked 18th) finished 3rd in the ACC. The Hurricanes rolled much of the season but then got steamrolled by North Carolina 62-26 in their regular season finale. The Hurricanes possess the stronger offense in this matchup (34 PPG vs 29.5 PPG) but the Cowboys are stronger on defense (22.4 PPG allowed vs 26 PPG allowed).

This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 2.5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen sharp money get down hard on Miami plus the points, dropping this line from 2.5 to 1. Historically, when two ranked teams go head-to-head in a Bowl game the underdog has covered roughly 54% of the time over the past decade. Miami is also a buy-low dog off a blowout loss. Pros and Joes seem to be in agreement with the total. Both are taking the over, which has driven this line up from 58.5 to 61. The forecast calls for mid-60s with moderate 5-10 MPH winds. 

9 p.m. ET: Texas vs Colorado

This is the Valero Alamo Bowl and it will be played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. The Longhorns (6-3, ranked 20th) finished 4th in the Big 12. After a 2-2 start, Texas went 4-1 the rest of the way, including a 69-31 blowout win over Kansas State in the final game of the regular season. On the flip side, Colorado (4-1) only played a 5-game schedule but finished 2nd in the Pac 12. Colorado started 4-0 but lost to Utah 38-21 in their regular season finale. Texas has a much better offense compared to Colorado (41.3 PPG vs 29.6 PPG). The Buffaloes are slightly better on defense (27 PPG allowed vs 29.1 PPG allowed).

This line opened with Texas listed as a hefty 13-point favorite. The public is split but we've seen sharps flock to the Buffs, dropping this line from 13 to 7.5. Some shops are even down to the key number of 7. One reason for the line move is the fact that several defensive starters have opted out for Texas, including star edge rusher Joseph Ossai, who will focus on the NFL Draft instead of playing in this game. Colorado also has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a ranked opponent. We've also seen sharp money hit this total. Despite the public hammering the over, we've seen the total fall from 64.5 to 63.5, signaling some respected under money.

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