Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Lakers-Heat

October 5, 2020 11:36 PM

Monday Night Football was a godsend for public bettors and a nightmare for sportsbooks as popular favorites went a perfect 2-0 ATS. In the early game, the Chiefs (-11) beat the Patriots 26-10 to move to 4-0 on the season. New England was covering for much of the game, but then Jarrett Stidham threw a late pick-six to give Chiefs bettors the cover.

In the late game, the Packers (-5) throttled the Falcons 30-16 to also move to 4-0. Atlanta was actually a very sharp play, moving from + 7.5 to + 5. But it was all for naught as Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdowns and lit up the Falcons defense.

The public went 2-0 on MNF sides as the Chiefs and Packers received roughly two-thirds of spread bets. However, it wasn't a total loss for sharps and contrarians as unders went a perfect 2-0. Both unders were blueprint plays for wiseguys. The Pats-Chiefs total fell from 50 to 48.5 and landed on 36. The Falcons-Packers total fell from 58.5 to 56.5 and landed on 46. It also featured 15 MPH winds at Lambeau. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 56% over the past decade.

In the MLB playoffs, we saw a pair of sharp plays cash yesterday as the Astros (+ 130 to + 111) beat the Athletics 10-5 and the Yankees (-140 to -158) beat the Rays 9-3. Bettors should keep in mind a profitable strategy for low-total games. When the total is 7 or less in the playoffs, the over is roughly 57% over the past decade. We saw it cash easily in last night's Yankees-Rays game.

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday. Today we have NBA Finals Game 3 along with four MLB playoff games to sweat.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-1 p.m ET and Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where sharp action is flowing in the NBA finals tonight.

9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat


This is Game 4 of the NBA Finals. After dropping the first two games of the series, the Heat clawed back with a gutsy 115-104 win in Game 3, winning outright as 9.5-point dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7.5-point favorite. A slight majority of bets are laying the points, expecting a big bounce back win and cover by the Lakers. However, we've seen this line remain frozen and the Heat + 7.5 is being juiced up to -115, signaling liability on the dog. Some books have even dropped to 7. Essentially all smart money has been leaning with the Heat and the points. Miami is expected to be without Goran Dragic (foot) for this game but could see Bam Adebayo (shoulder) back in the lineup. We've also seen some sharp action hit the under, dropping total from 219.5 to 218.5. The under is 2-1 so far this series. Leading 2-1, the Lakers are -1667 favorites (94.3%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 850 underdogs.

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