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Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Heat-Celtics and Nuggets-Clippers

September 15, 2020 12:47 AM

The first Monday Night Football doubleheader of the season was a mixed bag for sharps, contrarians, sportsbooks and public bettors. Favorites went 2-0 straight up but just 1-1 ATS. Unders went a perfect 2-0. 

In the early game, the Steelers took care of business with a 26-16 win and cover over the Giants. It was a big win for the public--and a big hit for the house--as more than two-thirds of bets laid the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers opened at -3.5, swelled to -6 and won by 10, cashing for early, middle and late bettors who laid the points. Sharps, however, did cash the under. It opened at 47.5, closed at 44 and landed on 42. 

In the late game, contrarians and sportsbooks got their revenge on the public as the Broncos lost to the Titans 16-14 but covered the spread as 3-point dogs. The public was all over Tennessee and only about one-quarter of bets were brave enough to back the Broncos. Some Titans backers cashed, though. The line opened at Broncos -3 and flipped all the way to Titans -3 thanks to the Von Miller injury. Early bettors who were savvy enough to bet Tennessee as a dog, pick'em or up to -1.5 were able to cover. Late bettors who took Tennessee -2.5 or -3 lost. Value-minded contrarian bettors who waited out the big move and grabbed Denver + 2.5 or + 3 late were able to cover. As always, it's not just about picking the right side. It's about timing and getting the best number. The under 41.5 easily cashed. 

Now we turn the page to NFL Week 2. Here are some early line moves that already taken place over the last 24-hours or so. 

  • Rams + 3 to -1 at Eagles
  • Lions-Packers Over 47 to 48
  • Washington + 7 to + 6.5 at Cardinals
  • Falcons + 6 to + 5 at Cowboys
  • Falcons/Cowboys Over 50.5 to 52.5
  • Bills -4.5 to -5.5 at Dolphins
  • Bucs -7.5 to -9 vs Panthers
  • Panthers-Bucs Over 48 to 49
  • Vikings-Colts Over 47 to 48.5
  • Chiefs -7 to -8.5 at Chargers
  • Chiefs-Chargers Under 50 to 47.5

Today we get a breather from football but still have 2 big NBA games, 1 NHL game and 15 MLB games. Let's discuss a pair of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line from noon-1 p.m. ET and co-hosting Betting Across America from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics

 

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Bucks while the Celtics outlasted the Raptors 4-3 in a grueling seven game series. This line opened with Boston listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, despite an even bet split we've seen oddsmakers juice up the -1.5 on Boston to -115, signaling liability on the Celtics and a possible move up to -2. Boston went 2-1 against Miami during the regular season, winning 112-93, 109-101 and losing 112-106. Pros have also come down on under, dropping the total from 211.5 to 209.5. The under was 6-1 in the Celtics-Raptors series and 3-2 in the Heat-Bucks series. The Celtics are -139 favorites (58.2%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 115 dogs. 

9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

It's do-or-die Game 7 with a trip to the Western Conference Finals at stake. After racing out to a commanding 3-1 series lead, the Clippers have dropped two straight and are staring down the barrel of an epic collapse. Denver has won the past two games 111-105 and 111-98, both as 8.5-point dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point favorite. Early smart money hit the Clippers, pushing the line up to -7.5. The public, though, is grabbing the points with roughly two-thirds of bets backing the surging Nuggets. This line might end up falling back down to 7, so if you like Denver you'd be obliged to grab the hook on the + 7.5 sooner rather than later. Sharp action has also hit the under, dropping it from 208 to 207.5. Historically, Game 7 unders have been a smart bet due to tired legs and a defensive emphasis. 

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