Live On Air

Streaming now: Prime Time Action

play Watch Live radio Listen Live

Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Flames-Stars, Rays-Yankees and Caps-Islanders

August 17, 2020 11:37 PM

Opening Day of the NBA playoffs couldn't have gone any better for the public—or any worse for the sportsbooks. Favorites swept the board going a perfect 4-0 ATS and straight up. Overs and unders split 2-2. Here are the four favorite covers. 

  • Nuggets (-4.5) beat Jazz 135-125 in OT
  • Raptors (-10) beat Nets 134-110
  • Celtics (-6) beat 76ers 109-101
  • Clippers (-7) beat Mavericks 118-110

The Nuggets-Jazz game was the epitome of a bad beat if you were a Jazz backer. Denver opened -3, got steamed up to -5 and then sharp buyback hit Utah + 5, dropping the line down to 4.5. Utah held several late game leads, but then the game went to overtime where the Nuggets outscored the Jazz 20-10 in the extra frame to win by ten.

Oftentimes when favorites sweep the board or dogs sweep the board you are bound for some regression the following day. Yesterday, the public cleaned up, which means they will continue to ride the favorite train today. The sportsbooks, that took a beating yesterday, know this and will shade lines accordingly. This could provide additional value to go the other way and buy low on underdogs. 

Today, we have another loaded all-day sweat with 4 NBA games, 15 MLB games and 4 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum.

Also, I'm proud to announce that starting today, Brady Kannon and I will be filling in for Michael Lombradi and Patrick Meagher on the Lombardi Line on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Be sure to join us from noon-1 p.m. ET today as we break down the day's sharp action across the MLB, NBA and NHL. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable smart money today. 

5:30 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars 

This best-of-seven series is tied 2-2. The Stars are coming off a miracle victory in Game 4 in which they scored with 12-seconds left in regulation to tie the game and then scored in overtime to win 5-4. This pivotal Game 5 line opened with Dallas listed as a -120 favorite and Calgary a + 105 dog. Sharp action has come down on Dallas, pushing the Stars up to -125. Some books are inching closer to -130. One advantage for Dallas is the fact they're listed as the home team, which means they get the benefit of having the last line change. Two key injuries to monitor: Matthew Tkachuk of the Flames and goaltender Ben Bishop of the Stars. Both missed Game 4 and are considered game-time decisions. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (14-9) at New York Yankees (16-6)

This AL East showdown in the Bronx features two of the top four teams in the American League. The red-hot Rays have won two in a row and eight of their last nine. Meanwhile, the equally hot Yankees have won six straight and just swept the Red Sox. In a stellar pitching matchup, the Rays send lefty Blake Snell (1-0, 2.08 ERA) to the mound to face Yankee veteran Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 2.31 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -110 home favorite and Tampa an even money + 100 dog. Smart money has come down hard on the Rays, pushing Tampa from a + 100 dog to a -112 favorite. Road favorites are cashing at roughly 65% this season. Sharp action has also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8. 

8 p.m. ET: Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders 

The Islanders hold a 3-0 series lead and have a chance to sweep the Caps in this one. New York has outscored Washington by a combined score of 11-5, cashing tickets as dogs each time (+ 115, + 105 and -105). This pivotal Game 4 line opened at a true pick'em with both sides listed at -105. The public is all over Washington because the Caps won the Cup in 2018 and "can't possibly" be swept by the lowly Islanders. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Washington, this line moved to Islanders -110. Some books are up to Isles -115. This signals sharp action rejecting the Gambler's Fallacy and backing the Isles to finish off the Caps. 

 

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Day 1 of NBA Free Agency was won by the Miami Heat, who improved from + 3500 to + 2500 to win the NBA Title after signing Kyle Lowry....
  • Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    MONEY MATTER$: After three weeks, it appears Mr. Ed is better at predicting the weather than picking winners … No one promised Mr. Ed a rose...
  • youmans

    Sharps get in on preseason action

    When the NFL preseason kicks off Thursday, the only action Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might get is a TV interview with a sideline reporter....
  • USATSI_16495000

    My favorite Olympic bets for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

    It was a disappointing walk-off loss for Team Israel against the Dominican Republic in Olympic baseball. I thought we were going to get a nice winner...
  • reynolds

    Best bets for Memphis PGA event

    The PGA Tour took a week off for the Olympic Games but returns to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational with an elite field of just 66 players....
  • kuhn

    Analytical look at UFC 265

    (To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) Even with the loss of an Amanda Nunes title defense, the fight card...
  • finocchiaro

    Gane, Lewis offer UFC contrasts

    UFC 265 will be held in front of a packed house Saturday in Houston. This fight card is stacked with key matchups and clashes of styles featuring fighters...
  • hill

    Split ticket: 1 bet on NFL, 1 on MLB

    Surely some of you have these types of people in your life: “You bet on the NFL preseason?” Those who judge you for betting on the NFL exhibition...
  • tuley

    Tuley's Takes on NFL topics

    I celebrated my 55th birthday Monday, and my best gift every year at the Tuley’s Takes home office party is that football season is here! The...
  • makinen_cfl

    Getting reacquainted with CFL

    Football returns this weekend, not quite in full force. But unlike the NFL preseason game Thursday night, the results actually count in the Canadian Football...
  • andrews

    Outlooks for Steelers, Cowboys

    Don’t get caught napping! Pro football returns Thursday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys in the annual Hall of Fame Game...
  • makinennfl

    Betting trends for HOF game

    (To view the chart accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) It’s not the Super Bowl or the regular-season kickoff, but the...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close