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Tuesday Sharp Action Report for Bills-Titans

October 12, 2020 11:47 PM

The Los Angeles Chargers (+ 7) came up huge for wiseguys on Monday Night Football, falling to the New Orleans Saints 30-27 in overtime but covering the spread. The public was all over the Saints, who opened as a 7.5-point favorite and reached -8.5 behind lopsided support. However, in the final 24 hours leading up to game-time we saw pro money get down hard on the Chargers plus the points, causing sharp reverse line movement in favor of Los Angeles, who closed as a 7-point dog.

There are several takeaways bettors can extract from this game. First, late moves are most meaningful because that's when limits are highest and the biggest sharp wagers come in. So when we saw the Chargers fall to + 7 after topping out at + 8.5 that was a sign respected money was in their favor. Also, Los Angeles was a classic contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Betting against the public is always most meaningful in primetime games with high ticket counts because there is more public bias to go against.

Lastly, we saw the Chargers fit one of the most profitable betting systems on the young season thus far. Road teams with line moves in their favor (like Chargers + 7.5 to + 7) are now 23-13 ATS (64%) this season. This speaks to decreased home field advantage due to little or not fans in the stands, plus the presence of sharp action in the form of a line move. Remember, pro money moves numbers, not public money.

Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, where we have a rare Tuesday Night Football showdown on our hands, plus a pair of MLB playoff games.

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where sharp action is flowing Tuesday Night Football.

7 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans


There are only five undefeated teams left in the NFL and this rare Tuesday Night showdown features two of them. The Bills (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 win over the Raiders, covering as 3-point road favorites. Buffalo has outscored their opponents by an average score of 31-25 so far this season. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) are playing for the first time in two weeks after several players tested positive for COVID-19. Essentially, Tennessee enjoys a a big rest advantage in this one as they come off a virtual bye week. The Titans are a rare undefeated teams that has yet to cover a spread this season, beating their opponents by an average score of 27-25.

This line opened with the Bills listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a combination of both Pro and Joe money circle the wagons with Buffalo, pushing the Bills up to -3.5. The hook on Tennessee + 3.5 has been hanging out there for a while, almost as if sportsbooks are taunting bettors to grab the Titans. If you see this line fall back down to 3, that would be a signal that late money is breaking toward Tennessee. But if it stays at 3.5, that would continue to signal Bills liability. A slight advantage for Buffalo is the lead official Carl Cheffers. He has historically favored road teams (52% ATS). The total is 53. The over is 4-0 in Bills games this season and 2-1 in Titans games.

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