Joes got the best of Pros on Monday Night Football as the Chiefs upset the Ravens 34-20. The Ravens were a wiseguy play. Baltimore opened at -2.5 or -3 and moved to -3.5 despite receiving only about one-third of spread bets. However, it was all for naught as Patrick Mahomes rewarded public bettors who took Kansas City plus the points. The Chiefs cashed + 155 on the moneyline.
The total was a textbook example of how timing is everything in sports betting. It opened at 52 and got steamed up to 55 thanks to heavily lopsided over betting. After the Chiefs and Ravens combined to score 37 points in the first half, the over looked like a layup. However, both teams scored just 17 points in the second half to land on a total of 54. This means early bettors who bet Over 52 to Over 53.5 cashed. Late bettors who took Over 54.5 or Over 55 lost. On the other hand, bettors who waited out the big move and grabbed the inflated Under 55 late also cashed.
Many bettors also cashed a popular two-team, 6-point teaser on the Chiefs (+ 3.5 to + 9.5) and the Over (54.5 to 48.5) at roughly -120 odds.
Today, the MLB postseason begins. Here are the latest World Series odds from BetMGM for the 16-team field
Dodgers + 375
Yankees + 600
Rays + 800
Twins, A's, Padres + 1000
Braves, White Sox + 1200
Cubs + 1400
Indians + 1600
Astros + 2500
Reds + 3500
Marlins, Brewers, Cardinals, Jays + 4000
For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB playoff games receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
2 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
The Astros (29-31) finished with a sub .500 record and snuck into the playoffs as the 8th and final seed in the American League. Meanwhile, the Twins (36-24) won the AL Central and finished tied for the 2rd-best record in the AL alongside the Athletics, trailing only the Rays. Houston will start Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) on the hill and Minnesota counters with Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a -145 home favorite and the Astros a + 130 underdog. We've seen sharps get down hard on the home favorite, pushing the Twins from -145 to -165. The Astros are 3-13 as a dog this season and 9-21 on the road. The Twins are 29-18 as a favorite and 23-7 at home. We've also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The Twins are -164 favorites (62.1%) to win this series at BetMGM. The Astros are a + 135 dog.
3 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
The White Sox (35-25) and Athletics (36-24) finished with nearly identical records in the regular season. In today's Game 1, Chicago sends ace Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) to the mound to face young Oakland southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as short -128 road favorites and the Athletics a + 118 home dog. The public is happy to back the White Sox at a short price. But we've seen pro money hit the Athletics, dropping Oakland from + 118 to + 108. The White Sox went 26-9 as a favorite this season, 17-13 on the road and 14-0 against lefties. The A's are 3-6 as a dog this season and 21-9 at home. Oakland also has value as a short playoff home dog, a profitable spot historically. There looks to be liability on this under. The total is 7.5 and juiced up to the under -120. The Athletics are short -120 series favorites. The White Sox are + 100.
Other MLB Series Prices at BetMGM
Jays + 165 vs Rays -200
Yankees -139 vs Indians + 115
Reds + 115 vs Braves -139
Marlins + 150 vs Cubs -182
Cardinals + 175 vs Padres -218
Brewers + 240 vs Dodgers -304