The Jets came up huge for sharps last night, losing to the Patriots 30-27 on Monday Night Football but covering the spread as 9-point dogs. The Jets checked off several of the "wiseguy" boxes. New York was contrarian in a heavily bet game and saw a massively inflated line, rising from + 7.5 to + 10 once it was announced Joe Flacco would start in place of Sam Darnold. But then we saw late sharp reverse line movement hit the Jets, dropping New York from + 10 to + 9 in the final hours before kickoff. Late movement is always the most meaningful as it comes when limits are highest and books take in the biggest wagers from respected bettors.
Essentially the Jets evolved from an early value play into a late sharp play. They were also a divisional dog with a low total, a profitable spot historically. Due to the built in familiarity, divisional matchups favor the team getting points. And low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover, especially when it's a near double-digit spread.
With the Jets' cover, dogs improve to 76-57 ATS (57%) on the season. Divisional dogs are now 29-16 ATS (64%). Primetime dogs are now 19-9 ATS (68%).
The over was a zero-sweat cash. The public was split on the total and even slightly favored the under, expecting a lower scoring game. Yet we saw a late move from 41 to 42. It easily sailed over and landed on 57. Overs are 70-60-3 (54%) on the season.
Now we turn our attention to a loaded Tuesday slate featuring a trio of MACtion games.
For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's action along with early NFL and NCAAF line moves for this weekend, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for two of tonight's college football games.
7 p.m. ET: Akron (0-1) at Ohio (0-1)
Both of these MACtion foes dropped their season openers last week. Akron got demolished by Western Michigan 58-13, failing to cover as 20.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Ohio lost a close one to Central Michigan 30-27, losing straight up as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Ohio listed as a massive 24.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both laying the wood with Ohio here and have pushed the number up from -24.5 to -27.5. Who can blame them? Akron has quietly become one of the most profitable fades in sports. The Zips are 1-12 ATS since 2019.
7:30 p.m. ET: Kent State (1-0) at Bowling Green (0-1)
These teams put forth opposite performances in their season debuts. Kent State took down Eastern Michigan 27-23, although they failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Bowling Green got waxed by Toledo 38-3, failing to cover as 24-point dogs. This line opened with Kent State listed as an 18.5-point road favorite. A slight majority of bets along with an onslaught of sharp action has hit the Golden Flashes, driving this line up from -18.5 to -20.5. We've also seen respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 56. Weather is a big reason for this drop, as the forecast calls for 20 MPH winds.