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Tuesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have another loaded slate to choose from including 2 NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 16 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...


7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. The home team has won all four games this series, with the Heat racing out to a 2-0 series lead in Miami and then the 76ers winning the last two games in Philadelphia. The 76ers are coming off a 116-108 win in Game 4, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Miami. Tonight's rematch opened with the Heat listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public expects the Heat to bounce back and are happy to lay the short chalk with Miami at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Miami fall from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the 76ers, with pros grabbing Philadelphia plus the points. We could also be looking at a low scoring game, as the total has been bet down from 210 to 209.5. Unders are 42-23 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 24-10 (71%). Tied 2-2, the Heat are -145 favorites to win the series. The 76ers are +120.


10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. The home team has won all four games this series, with the Suns winning the first two games in Phoenix and then the Mavericks winning the last two in Dallas. The Mavs are coming off a 111-101 victory in Game 4, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. Now the series shifts back to Phoenix. Tonight's rematch opened with the Suns listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. We've seen the Suns creep up from -5.5 to -6, signaling some respected money laying the chalk with the favorite. However, some shops that reached -6.5 saw sharp buyback on Mavs +6.5, dropping the line back down to 6. Home teams are 12-4 ATS (75%) in the Conference Semifinals. Favorites are 38-27 ATS (59%) this postseason. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 213. With the series tied 2-2, the Suns are -250 favorites to advance while the Mavs are  200 dogs. 

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