Tuesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

mavs11

Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game ...

9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks

This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 3-0 and can eliminate the Mavericks with a victory tonight. Golden State is coming off a 109-100 win in Game 3, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.

In tonight's rematch, the Mavericks opened as 1-point home favorites. The public is happy to grab the point with the trendy dog Warriors. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged off Mavs -1. This signals some sharp line freeze liability on contrarian home favorite Dallas in a desperation spot. 

Favorites are 46-36 ATS (56%) this postseason, including 56-26 (68%) straight up. The Mavericks are -115 on the moneyline. Dallas has also been profitable off a loss, going 26-11 ATS (70%). 

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 215.5. The under is 2-1 this series. Unders are 52-30 (63%) this postseason. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 46-21 (69%). Dallas has been a big under team all season, going 59-37 to the under including 35-12 to the under at home. Dallas is the slowest paced team in the NBA and also the 6th-best in terms of defensive efficiency. 

Leading 3-0, the Warriors are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are + 2500 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at -145. 

 

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