Tuesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a plethora of Tuesday sweats to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 18 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, we are down to the Final Four in the NBA. Here are the updated odds to win the Title at BetMGM...

Warriors +150

Celtics +200

Heat +425

Mavericks +600

Now let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


8:30 p.m ET: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The 2-seed Celtics swept the Nets 4-0 in the first round and then edged the Bucks 4-3 in round two, beating the defending champs 109-81 in Game 7 and easily covering as 5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Heat brushed aside the Hawks in five games in round one and then beat the 76ers in six games in round two. 

This line opened with Miami listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Heat at home. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Miami we've seen the betting line fall from Heat -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Celtics, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog. This line movement speaks volumes because the Heat enjoy a notable rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Celtics have a short turnaround after playing on Sunday. However, despite this "Rest vs Tired" edge toward Miami the line has fallen to Boston. It appears sharps are siding with the "momentum" of Boston over the rest for Miami. 

Teams receiving line movement in their favor are 33-26 ATS (56%) this postseason. Teams coming off a win in the playoffs and also receiving line movement in their favor are 19-13 ATS (59%). Boston is 18-8 ATS (69%) as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS in the postseason as a dog. 

Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 206 to 204. Unders are 49-26 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-12 (71%). 

Despite being the worse seed (2 vs 1) and lacking home court advantage, Boston is a -185 favorite to win the series. Miami is a +150 dog. 

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