Tuesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Bettors have a loaded Tuesday slate to choose from today, including a trio of NBA playoff games, 16 MLB games and 10 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff action...


7:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

The Heat lead the series 1-0 after posting a 115-91 win in the series opener, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Heat opened as 7-point home favorites. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Miami. This lopsided betting has briefly pushed the line from Heat -7 to -7.5. But each time it gets to 7.5, we see buyback on the Hawks plus the hook, dropping the line back down to 7. Essentially, we are seeing some line freeze and reverse line movement liability on the Hawks plus the points. Pros have also hit this over, steaming the total up from 217 to 219. Miami is 48-34 to the over this season. Atlanta is #1 in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Leading 1-0, the Heat are -800 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are +550. 


8:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies

The Timberwolves lead this series 1-0 after earning a 130-117 upset victory in Game 1, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Memphis opened as a 7-point home favorite. This line has remained frozen at 7 and, at times, briefly dipped to 6.5. It has never ticked up to 7.5. Reading between the lines, it appears that liability is on the Wolves plus the points. The public is expecting another high scoring game. However, despite lopsided betting on the over, the total hasn't budged off 241. This signals some respected money leaning on the under, with this total possibly being inflated after a high-scoring opening game. Unders are 11-6 (65%) this postseason. The Grizzlies entered Game 1 as a -375 favorite on the series price. Down 1-0, Memphis is still a -140 favorite. Minnesota entered the opener as +300 dogs and are now down to +115. 


10 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns

The Suns took care of business in the series opener, winning 110-90 and covering as 10-point home favorites to take a 1-0 series lead. In tonight's rematch, Phoenix opened as a 10-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the double-digit spread with the Suns. However, we've seen this line fall from 10 to 9.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Pelicans plus the points. Pros have also leaned under here, as some books have fallen from 222 to 221.5. Playoff unders that fall at least a half point are 8-3 (73%) to the under this postseason. This under has value as a "big spread" under. Historically, big spreads have provided value as the double-digit favorite oftentimes gets up big and takes their foot off the gas and coasts in the second half. The Suns entered Game 1 as a -1000 favorite on the series price. Phoenix is now -5000. The Pelicans closed +650 and are now +1400. The Suns are  160 to sweep the series 4-0. 

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